International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research (2019) 30: 381- 403 DOI: 10.22068/ijiepr.30.4.381 Development of System Dynamics Based Simulation Models for Runway Safety Planning Olasunkanmi O Akinyemi 1* & Kazeem A Adebiyi 2 Received 06 September 2018; Revised 25 August 2019; Accepted 28 October 2019; Published online 01 December 2019 © Iran University of Science and Technology 2019 ABSTRACT Safety has been established in maintaining and improving the productivity level of the aviation industry with derivable benefits in terms of wealth and reputation. Despite high investments in aviation, safety is generally recognized as an incurred cost, leading to a compliance approach. This may be due to the dearth of literature on a generally agreed proactive safety performance indicator to justify the huge investment. This study, therefore, developed predictive models that evaluate runway safety investment strategies and predict the overall performance of the aviation system using System Dynamics stock and flow diagram. An interactive computer programme of the models was written using Java programming language. A set of dynamic equations for predicting a number of runway accidents, preventions, monetary savings/losses, and safety programme breakeven period are the safety performance measures. The runway safety intervention effectiveness factor and level of budget implementation are system policy parameters used to control the mechanism of the runway safety system. Relevant data were obtained from Federal Aviation Authority, Nigeria to validate the models. Twenty-nine runway safety quantities were identified. The dynamic equations for a number of runway accident preventions and monetary savings/losses exhibited exponential growth, while the number of runway accidents exhibits exponential decay. The results of the simulation runs showed no significant difference between the former and real-life situations; thus, the models can serve as useful tools to effectively and efficiently manage the behavior and performance of the runway safety programme. KEYWORDS: Runway safety, runway accident, runway hazards, predictive models, system dynamics. 1. Introduction1 Despite the numerous national and international aviation risk and safety monitoring bodies, hazardous practices and conditions still persist. The prevalence of aviation losses of lives and man-hours of labor is attributable to insufficient investment in safety, whereas the associated cost accrued due to accident for the individuals, governments, aviation organizations, or communities through compensation cost, insurance cost, legal cost, and so on is detrimental to the economic value of the nation. Unfortunately, the paid passenger transport class of aviation holds a lackluster safety report, accounting for 94% of civil aviation fatalities [1]. Corresponding author: Olasunkanmi O Akinyemi * ooakinyemi@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng 1. Mechanical Engineering Department, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria. 2. Mechanical Engineering Department, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomosho, Nigeria. Runway safety has long been a concern for the aviation industry with runway incursions and runway excursions identified as significant threats [2]. Runway accidents are low- probability, high-consequence (lp/hc) events. These runway accidents are most often result from the loss of situational awareness (Air Traffic Controllers, Pilots and Airside vehicle drivers), which can also be exacerbated by worker fatigue (Air Traffic Controllers and Pilots), unfamiliar and complex airports, or even a lack of clear marking and signage on taxiways, among other reasons. Moreover, the growing international business with the associated air traffic increase has put runway incursions on the rise [3]. However, runway excursion has been recognized to consist of 96% of all runway accidents, 80% of deadly runway accidents, and 75% of associated fatalities [4]. Investing in the proactive runway protection programme is essential in order to mitigate the occurrence of runway accidents with RESEARCH PAPER [ DOI: 10.22068/ijiepr.30.4.381 ] [ Downloaded from ijiepr.iust.ac.ir on 2021-12-16 ] 1 / 23