IOSR Journal of Mathematics (IOSR-JM) e-ISSN: 2278-5728, p-ISSN: 2319-765X. Volume 16, Issue 4 Ser. V (Jul.–Aug. 2020), PP 37-42 www.iosrjournals.org DOI: 10.9790/5728-1604053742 www.iosrjournals.org 37 | Page Juvenile Delinquency in India: Incidences and Forecasting Prof. Jiten Hazarika, Daalima Goswami Department of Statistics (HOD), Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786004, Assam Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh 786004, Assam Abstract: Juvenile in conflict with law is a matter of grave concern as this age group people belong to the most productive period of life. This phase is undoubtedly very fragile, and has severe consequences, which may last for long. The involvement of juveniles in any kind of delinquencies is indeed disheartening. There are multiple reasons, and so the nature of crime is. In this paper, it has been tried to cover the incidences of juvenile delinquencies in India for a given period of time. A detail account of such cases has been provided, giving an insight into the type of offences juveniles have been committing over the years. Moreover, an attempt has been made to forecast cases in this line for understanding future trend. Keywords: Juvenile Delinquencies, Crime Heads, ARIMA, Forecasting, Incidences --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date of Submission: 20-08-2020 Date of Acceptance: 06-09-2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I. Introduction Juvenile delinquency is detrimental to every social structure. Involvement of juveniles in any kind of unlawful act is indeed unfortunate, because they belong the most productive age group of life. It is that period, which can build the future of any individual. What they learn during this time has significant impact in their future, as it is said that today’s youths are the future of a nation. Therefore, instead of becoming an asset for the society, conflict of children with law is certainly a matter of grave concern. Juvenile delinquency is a result of dynamic social process and failure of both social and self-control. The intensity of delinquency depends on numerous and diverse factors like social, financial, educational, cultural atmosphere, etc. (Haveripet, 2013). The day-to-day environment, both inside and outside the home, plays significant role in shaping a child mentally and physically. Some of the most common causes, which make juvenile more inclined towards offences are identified as poverty, drug abuse, lack of education, sexual and physical harassment, abusive parents, family violence, association with anti social peer-group, etc. The causes of juvenile delinquency could be classified as (a) Social factors, and (b) Personal factors (Baligar, 2014). The social factors include influence of broken homes, poverty, delinquent companions, beggary, social media, etc. The personal factors of delinquency are mental deficiency, emotional problems, and other factors that are individualistic. Although most of studies dealing with juvenile delinquency only concentrate on delinquency by young people, however it is important to mention that they are also victim of either criminal or delinquent act. A study of 40 developing countries by WHO (World Health Organization) reveals that an average of 42% of boys and 37% of girls are exposed to bullying. Sexual harassment is a major determinant of youth violence. A study conducted by WHO on women’s health and domestic violence shows that out of the total women surveyed, 3-24% women’s first sexual experience was forced. It is worth to be mentioned that homicide is the fourth leading cause of death among the people aged between 10-29 worldwide, and out of which 83% are male victims. Globally around 200,000 homicides occur every year among 10–29 years of age, which is about 43% of the total number of homicides worldwide each year. Continuous threat of victimization makes youths susceptible to crime. (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/youth-violence ). Sharma et al. in their review article “Juvenile delinquency in India- a cause for concern” shed light on the different aspect in this regard. According to this paper, Sociological theories of delinquency have categorized the factors into three groups viz. environment, social structure, and the learning process. Hirch has classified them in six groups on the basis of the kinds of offences committed. They are- Incorrigibility (disobedience and keeping late hours) , Truancy ( staying away from school), Larceny(ranging from petty theft to armed robbery), Destruction of property (both public and private), Violence against community or individual, and sexual offences ranging from homosexuality to rape. Eaton and Pole classified delinquent into five groups accordingly to the offence: Minor violations (disorderly conduct and minor traffic violations), Major violations including theft, property violations, addiction, and bodily harm including homicide and rape. Trojanawicz classified them as accidental, ill socialized, aggressive, occasional, professional, and gang organized. Psychologists have classified juvenile delinquents on the basis of their individual traits or the psychological dynamics of their personality into five groups: mentally defective, psychotic, neurotic, situational and cultural (Sharma et al, 2009).