Volume 6 • Issue 2 • 1000164 Adv Automob Engg, an open access journal ISSN: 2167-7670 Open Access Research Article Advances in Automobile Engineering A d v a n c e s i n A u t o m o b i l e E n g i n e e r i n g ISSN: 2167-7670 Alankus, Adv Automob Eng 2017, 6:2 DOI: 10.4172/2167-7670.1000164 *Corresponding author: Orhan B Alankus, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Okan University, Ballica YoluIstanbul, Tuzla, Turkey, Tel: 00905324332742; E-mail: orhan.alankus@okan.edu.tr Received April 28, 2017; Accepted May 22, 2017; Published May 25, 2017 Citation: Alankus OB (2017) Technology Forecast for Electrical Vehicle Battery Technology and Future Electric Vehicle Market Estimation. Adv Automob Eng 6: 164. doi: 10.4172/2167-7670.1000164 Copyright: © 2017 Alankus OB. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Abstract Electric Vehicle (EV) battery technologies is a limiting factor for the wide spread diffusion of electric vehicles. EV battery’s energy density compared to fossil fuels is still very low, thus EV’s have still stringent driving range with voluminous, heavy and high cost batteries. Automotive OEM’s are trying to estimate the future of batteries to do their plans related to electric vehicle manufacturing. This article attempts to estimate the future of EV batteries and mainly that of Li_Ion, Li_S and Li_Air Technologies which seem to be the most promising Technologies as of today. The article explains in detail the methodology used, and the results with an estimation of future EV market as a result of the EV battery development time scale. Technology Forecast for Electrical Vehicle Battery Technology and Future Electric Vehicle Market Estimation Orhan B Alankus* Department of Mechanical Engineering, Okan University, Ballica YoluIstanbul, Tuzla, Turkey Keywords: Technology forecast; EV battery future; EV market future Introduction Transport sector has an important contribution on global carbon emission. In EU, Transport sector is the second most greenhouse gases emitting sector with 24.3% [1]. Terefore, major car manufacturing countries have declared special regulations and objectives in order to decrease these high emission ratios. EU regulation requires feets to have 95 g CO 2 /km cap by 2020. US and Japan has also challenging targets. Tese targets can only be achieved by partial introduction of electric vehicles to feets. For this reason, most major manufacturers have already introduced their electric vehicle cars, and they have plans to develop further. Te countries have set some objectives to achieve for electric vehicle market [2,3]. However, in most cases, these objectives are revised when the deadlines come closer. In 2011 US has put an objective of reaching 1 million electric vehicles by 2015. However, the total of all the electric vehicles according to the report of IEA in 2015 is 665,000 [4]. Te numbers and range is also very diferent between diferent research companies. 2020 estimation for market share of electric vehicles changes from 2% to 25% according to diferent research organizations. An important reason for such wide range of estimation and discrepancies on achievement of objectives are due to the major bottlenecks for electric vehicle introduction to the market. Main technical road block is the battery technology. A 24 Kwh Li_Ion Battery for around 100 miles range for a compact vehicle, costs around 8,400 $ with a weight of around 200 kgs. Charging time is also much above of that customers are used to for petrol powered vehicles. Another major road block is charging infrastructure and smart grid systems, which is also in a way related to the battery technology. In order to estimate the future of electric vehicles, it is necessary to estimate future of electric vehicle batteries. In this article an attempt will be made to estimate the future cost and main performance specifcations of electric vehicle batteries. Ten an estimation regarding the possible sales volumes of electric vehicles could be done in a more reliable manner. However estimation of future level of technology is an intriguing subject and should be analyzed in a methodological system otherwise the results could be misleading. In this article, the several development stages of introduction of a technologically innovative product to the market will be taken into account and the forecasting will be carried out by taking into account characteristics of each phase. Martino [5,6] defnes the phases as follows,  Forecasting steps for a new technology.  Technology forecasting methodology.  Electric vehicle battery technologies analysis.  Extension of battery technology to market analysis.  Application of forecasting methods to market estimation. Forecasting Steps for New Technology Difusion To estimate the market for a radically new product requires a diferent methodology than the estimation methodologies for incremental new products, especially when the technology is in the initial stages. Development stages of a radically new product always starts with basic research. Te second stage is technology development (applied research) using the results of basic research. Afer technology development the third stage is product development integrating new technologies. Production and marketing is the fourth stage. Market size and impacts are the ffh stage. Each stage has diferent information sources. Martino [5] has pointed out the information sources as in the Table 1. Te representation of life cycles for each stage can be seen in the Figure 1. Life cycles follow an S-Shaped curve. Te frst stage is the start- up period. Ten comes the growth period, followed by maturity and saturation periods. Understanding the passage from one development stage to another and on which period of the S-Curve the development is are the challenges of technology forecasting. Technology Forecasting is important to understand when to jump to a new technological activity or to leave an existing technology.