INSURGENT ATTACKS, GOVERNMENT PROTECTION,
AND INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION
KJELL HAUSKEN*
Faculty of Science and Technology
University of Stavanger
4036 Stavanger, Norway
MTHULI NCUBE
Professor, Managing Director and Head
Quantum Global Research Lab Ltd
Bahnhofstrasse 2
CH 6300 Zug, Switzerland
Keywords: International intervention, terrorism, fighting, protection, incumbent, challenger, conflict.
Journal of Economic Literature classification numbers: C72, D72, D74
Acknowledgement: We acknowledge the research assistance from Kate Ryan and Habiba Ben Barka.
Abstract
A government failing to protect against insurgents may or may not be rescued by the international
community. Classifying events during 1961-2012, we find that among the successful interventions,
war occurs more often than tension which occurs more often than that the government remains
in power. Unsuccessful interventions are less common than successful interventions. When the
government protects successfully, tension occurs more often than that the government remains in
power, which occurs more often than war. Empirical tests show that the type of intervener matters.
U.S. interventions tend to cause more successful outcomes.
1. Introduction
1.1 Background and contribution
The development of international institutions makes situations more common where
the international community defned as foreign governments intervenes militarily to
rescue governments unsuccessfully repelling insurgents (rebels, opponents, adversaries,
terrorists, etc) seeking to take control over a country or region. Examples of motives for
such interventions are ideology, humanitarianism, stability, and access to natural and other
International Journal of Development and Confict
9(2019) 142–175
*Corresponding author Email: kjell.hausken@uis.no
Copyright © Kjell Hausken and Mthuli Ncube. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License
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