GIS-Based Deterministic and Statistical Modelling of Rainfall-Induced Landslides: A Comparative Study Carlotta Bartelletti, Jorge Pedro Galve Arnedo, Michele Barsanti, Roberto Giannecchini, Giacomo D’Amato Avanzi, Yuri Galanti, Andrea Cevasco, José Miguel Azañón, and Rosa María Mateos Abstract In this paper three different approaches for landslide susceptibility modeling—Shallow Landslide Stability model (SHALSTAB), Likelihood Ratio (LR) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM)—are compared. They are based on deterministic and statistical methods, respectively. These methods were tested in the Pogliaschina catchment (25 km 2 wide; Northern Apennines, Eastern Liguria, Italy), heavily hit by an intense rainfall on 25 October 2011, that caused hundreds of shallow landslides, human losses and severe damage to infrastructure and buildings. The paper focuses on the assessment of the predictive performance of the three methods through a two-fold cross-validation technique and prediction rate curves (PRCs) analysis. The preliminary results have revealed that statistical methods have a higher predictive capability than the deterministic one. Keywords Shallow landslide susceptibility Á Generalized additive model Á Likelihood ratio Á SHALSTAB Á Prediction rate curves Á Northern Apennines Á Italy Introduction During the 50 years period 1964–2013, the Liguria region (northwestern Italy) has been affected by 50 fatal events and 88 fatalities caused by floods and landslides (Salvati et al. 2014). Most of them occurred in the central and eastern sectors of this region because of their morphology and meteorological features (Brandolini et al. 2012; Cevasco et al. 2015). In particular, steep slopes, the high diffusion of C. Bartelletti (&) Á R. Giannecchini Á G. D’Amato Avanzi Á Y. Galanti Earth Science Department, University of Pisa, Via S. Maria, 53, 56126 Pisa, Italy e-mail: carlotta.bartelletti@for.unipi.it R. Giannecchini e-mail: rgiannecchini@dst.unipi.it G. D’Amato Avanzi e-mail: damato@dst.unipi.it Y. Galanti e-mail: galanti@dst.unipi.it J.P. Galve Arnedo Á J.M. Azañón Department of Geodynamics, Universidad de Granada: Campus Universitario Fuentenueva, 18071 Granada, Spain e-mail: jpgalve@gmail.com J.M. Azañón e-mail: jazanon@ugr.es M. Barsanti Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, University of Pisa, Largo L. Lazzarino, 56122 Pisa, Italy e-mail: m.barsanti@ing.unipi.it A. Cevasco Department of Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, University of Genoa, Corso Europa 26, 16132 Genoa, Italy e-mail: cevasco@dipteris.unige.it R.M. Mateos Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Urbanización Alcázar del Genil. Edificio Zulema, bajos, 18006 Granada, Spain e-mail: rm.mateos@igme.es © Springer International Publishing AG 2017 M. Mikoš et al. (eds.), Advancing Culture of Living with Landslides, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-53498-5_86 749