CAUTHE 2008 Conference Where the Bloody Hell Are We? IDENTIFYING TOURISM DEMAND: THE GOLD COAST AND CAIRNS IN 2020 Petra Glover Monash University National Centre for Australian Studies PO Box 197, Caulfield East Vic 3145, Australia E-mail: petra.glover@arts.monash.edu.au Bruce Prideaux James Cook University School of Business Studies PO Box 6811, Cairns Mailing Centre, Cairns Qld 4870, Australia E-mail: bruce.prideaux@jcu.edu.au ABSTRACT Despite long planning horizons in the tourism industry, long-term research into future tourism demand patterns is rare. To address this gap a survey was conducted at Cairns and Coolangatta (Gold Coast) airports amongst 656 domestic tourists to explore their general life expectations and tourism expectations in 2020. Results indicate that respondents expect to have more money available for travel, to travel more frequently and to take longer holidays. While these findings may signify a positive outlook for Australian destinations, the expectation to travel overseas more frequently and to visit destinations that respondents had not previously visited point towards an increasingly competitive environment amongst domestic and overseas destinations and the growing difficulty in attracting repeat customers. Differences in tourism expectations exist between Baby Boomers, Generations X and Generation Y. Those are often related to the family life cycle stage but changing family values are increasing the diversity of demand amongst the younger generations. Keywords: tourism demand, Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y, demographic change, tourism demand expectations INTRODUCTION Research into the long-term business environment is important in the tourism industry since planning horizons in many sectors of the industry are of necessity quite lengthy. For example, infrastructure to support tourism development, including attractions and accommodation, often requires significant investment and may generate dividends only in the long-term. In the public sector investment in transport, water and other infrastructure requires considerable lead times. One of the challenges for investors in both the public and private sectors is to anticipate potential changes in the volume and type of tourism demand. A key but not only the factor that will shape future demand is the composition of the future population. In an era of global trends towards declining fertility and ageing populations the demand for tourism products will change in line with key population indices such as family size, working hours, age of retirement and age of death. Previous studies (Freysinger 1999; Godbey 2003; Rapoport, Rapoport & Strelitz 1975) into these issues have used the life cycle model as a key benchmark against which to measure change. Recent research (Godbey 2004; Pennington-Gray, Fridgen & Stynes 2003) has identified generations as a plausible indicator of change, particularly as generation groups move through their personal life cycle. 1