Projections of optometric manpower z - in Australia 1987 to 2000 Alan W Johnston*, David C Southgatet and Daryl J Guest** * zyxwvutsr Department of Optometry, University of Melbourne tAustralian Optometrical Association **Victorian College of Optometry A computer program and nomograph were developed and used to make projections of optometric manpower to the year zyxwvuts 2000 from base data collected in a 1987 survey of optometric manpower in Australia. On the basis of current recruitment rates an equivalent full-time optometrist-to-population ratio of 1:1O,OOO would be achieved by the year 1994. Predicted case loads of optometrists in the year 2000 are expected to fall unless there is an annual increase of 1.7 per cent in the utilisation of optometric services by the community. Key words: optometry, manpower projections, case loads, utilisation, health planning. he Australian Optometrical T Association (AOA) conducted surveys of optometric manpower as at January 1 1982, June 30 1984 and March 31 1987.'~~~~ These surveys provided an objective analysis of op- tometric manpower in Australia and have been summarised previ~usly.~ One benefit of these surveys was to assist planning for future optometric manpower by making projections of practising optometrists, although this was not their primary purpose. The aim of this paper is to describe projections of optometric manpow- er made to the year 2000 with the aid of appropriate transitional matrix models and computer programs in which the gains and losses of op- tometrists from equivalent full-time practice are used to determine a matrix of optometric manpower by sex and age decade, for each year un- til 2000. Two formal methods of assessing the adequacy of health care manpow- er are practitioner-to-population ra- tios and annual average practitioner case loads. These measures are relat- ed to each other as well as to the size of the general population, the utili- sation rate of vision care by the com- munity and the proportion of that care provided by optometry (as ophthalmology also provides a per- zyxwvuts Accepted zyxwvutsrqp for publication: June zyxwvutsrq 20 1988 centage of all vision care). A nomo- graph depicts the effect that chang- ing one or more of these variables has on the others (Figure 1). Methods Projections of the number of optometrists The AOA manpower surveys of 1982' and 19842 utilised a matrix model and computer program to predict future optometric manpower. This model5 was devised originally for predicting dental manpower. For the 1987 analysis we developed a new computer program to provide more comprehensive, intermediate data on annual manpower movements, and to better account for significant maternity leave taken in the first two age decades of practice. The program makes considered assumptions based on previous manpower trends and projected population increases. A schematic representation of the model is shown in Figure 2. The projections make use of 'equivalent full-time optometrists' (EFTOs), a calculation that collapses the categories of full-time, part-time and limited-time practice into o m 4 The three main sets of data were the age and sex profiles of the profession in 1987 (the so-called 'base data'), recruitment into the profession from graduating student classes and im- migration, and the loss of op- tometrists from the profession for various reasons. 1. The age and sex profile of the current practitioner pool The age and sex profile of op- tometrists on March 31 1987 was provided by the AOA Manpower Study of S~uthgate.~ Although projections of optometric manpow- er had been made in previous AOA studies'P2, the latest survey3 is used as the basis of this paper. The distribution of age by decade and by sex of equivalent full-time op- tometrists at March 31 1987 was used as the base data. This is shown in Figure 3. 2. Recruitment of optometrists Two sources of new optometrists were considered: student graduations from undergraduate courses in Aus- tralia and migration of optometrists from overseas. zyx 2(a) student graduates The number of student graduates ex- pected in future years was supplied by Clinical & Experimental Oplomelry 71.4: July/August I988 - 126-138 126