International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 22 (2017) pp. 12645-12651
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com
12645
Impact of Physics Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Laila
Cyclone Using the Advanced Mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting
Model
P. Janardhan Saikumar
1
Research Scholar, Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering,
Sri Venkateswara University College of Engineering, Sri Venkateswara University,
Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Orcid Id: 0000-0003-2307-8786
Dr. T. Ramashri
2
Professor, Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering,
Sri Venkateswara University College of Engineering, Sri Venkateswara University,
Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Abstract
The severe Tropical Cyclone Laila caused extensive damage
and loss of life in southeastern India during May 2010. The
cyclone developed from a low-pressure system that formed
under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation in
the Bay of Bengal and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic
Storm. The cyclone reached its peak intensity with a
minimum central pressure of 974 mbar and reached the
maximum sustained wind speed of 120 km/h (64.8 Knots).
The cyclone crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast near Bapatla
between 1100 and 1200 UTC on May 20. In this present
study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical
cyclone Laila to physics parameterizations is carried out with
a view to determining the best set of physics options for
prediction of cyclones originating in the north Indian Ocean.
The latent heat released in the clouds plays very important
role in intensifying or strengthening of Tropical cyclones and
the latent heat release is mainly dependent on the cloud
microphysical and dynamical properties. Three nested
domains are considered for WRF model simulation. The
resolution of domain-1, domain-2, and domain-3 are 45 km,
15km, and 5 km respectively. The results from the domain-3
are considered for analyzing and comparing the results. Model
simulation outputs are compared with corresponding
observation data. The simulated track and intensity of tropical
cyclone Laila are compared with the real-time data provided
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). WRF model
Simulations are performed using different convective cumulus
parameterization (CU) and microphysics parameterization
(MP) schemes. The main purpose of the present study is to
find the best suitable combination of MP and CU schemes for
the simulation of an accurate track of severe tropical cyclone
Laila over the Bay of Bengal. It was observed that in the
mesoscale model the track and intensity prediction skill
predominantly depends on CU and MP parameterization
schemes.
Keywords: Laila, WRF Model, physics parameterizations,
Cyclone track, Track error
INTRODUCTION
The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Laila developed from a low-
pressure area over North Indian Ocean late on 17th May 2010
and intensified into Cyclone Strom on 18th May and further
intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) in the
early morning of 19th May. It continued to intensify while
moving north-west direction and reached maximum intensity
with a maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 120 kmph
over the Bay of Bengal of Andhra Pradesh coast on 20th May
2010. It crossed south Andhra Pradesh coast near Bapatla
16.0°N 80.6°E between 1100 and 1200 UTC on 20th May. At
the time of landfall on 20th the estimated central pressure was
974 hPa (JTWC 2010) and the estimated maximum sustained
surface wind speed was about 70 Knots. It caused very heavy
to extremely heavy rainfall over South Andhra Pradesh.
Ongole received heavy rain of 32 cm on May 20 and 142 mm
on May 21in Andhra Pradesh. On May 21, in 24 hours
kothapatnam received rainfall of 258 mm, Maddipadu
received rainfall of 510 mm and Addanki received the highest
rainfall of 522 mm [1].
The numerical weather prediction (NWP) and dynamical
statistical models provided good guidance with respect to its
genesis, track, and intensity. The India Meteorological
Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre
(JTWC), USA predicted the genesis, intensity, track, point
and time of landfall 5 days in advance. Cyclones developed
over warm oceans and under the influence of steering forces
cyclone move towards the land [2]. In recent years Indian
Meteorological Department adopted various strategies and
decision-making process to improve the prediction of tropical
cyclones [5]. Different simulation experiments are conducted
to examine the performance of the high-resolution Advanced
Research Weather Research and forecasting model for tropical
cyclone prediction over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) region of
the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) [11]. Several experiments
conducted to study the impacts of cloud microphysical
processes on hurricane track, intensity, precipitation and
thermodynamic vertical structural characteristics of hurricane