Land Use Policy 61 (2017) 40–52 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Deforestation analysis in protected areas and scenario simulation for structural corridors in the agricultural frontier of Western Bahia, Brazil Sandro Nunes de Oliveira a,b , Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior b,* , Roberto Arnaldo Trancoso Gomes b , Renato Fontes Guimarães b , Concepta Margaret McManus c a Instituto Federal de Brasília (IFB), Campus Gama, DF 480, Setor de Múltiplas Atividades, Lote 01, Gama, DF, 72429-005, Brazil b Departamento de Geografia, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, 70910-900, Brazil c Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, 70910-900, Brazil a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 16 March 2016 Received in revised form 28 October 2016 Accepted 31 October 2016 Keywords: Deforestation Protected area Permanent preservation area Structural corridors Western Bahia a b s t r a c t The aim in this paper was to evaluate the spatial distribution of protected areas defined by law and their importance as structural corridors. The study area was 7,559,783.69 ha located in Western Bahia (Northeast Brazil), restricted to the limits of the Urucuia Group (Upper Cretaceous), where there is strong agribusiness growth. Currently, a major dilemma in Brazilian public policy arises from the conflicting interests of environmental conservation and increased food production. Brazilian environmental pro- tection policies include the implantation of Protected Areas (Full Protection Units and Sustainable Use Units) and the adoption of the National Forest Act (Permanent Preservation Areas and Legal Reserves). In this context, we delimited illegal land-use in Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) adopting the intersec- tion between land-use/land-cover data from PRISM/ALOS image classification for the years 2007–2010 and PPA vectors. We performed the temporal analysis in PAs considering land-use/land-cover data from Landsat TM image classification for the years 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2011. Finally, we performed a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate whether PPAs alone are suffi- cient as structural corridors. Hypothetical scenarios were simulated to increase the potential of PPAs as structural corridors. The calculation of MSPA attributes was conducted considering 3 edge widths: 15 m (1 pixel), 510 m (34 pixels), and 1005 m (67 pixels). Four scenarios were simulated, considering a gradual increase in preserved areas. The results show that illegal land use is contained within PPA and protected areas. The scenario simulations present alternatives to increase the connectivity of the fragments and ensure the maintenance of ecological and hydrological services. Rapid agricultural expansion without proper landscape planning can compromise the sustainability of ecosystem services and the recharge zone of the Urucuia aquifer. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Brazilian agriculture has achieved high productivity levels, becoming important in the global market and contributing greatly to its economic development (Abbade, 2014; Figueiredo et al., 2012). Over the past three decades (since 1990), the farming sec- tor has shown significant growth, doubling agricultural production * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: sandro.oliveira@ifb.edu.br (S. Nunes de Oliveira), osmarjr@unb.br (O. Abílio de Carvalho Júnior), robertogomes@unb.br (R.A. Trancoso Gomes), renatofg@unb.br (R. Fontes Guimarães), concepta@unb.br (C.M. McManus). volume and tripling livestock production (OECD/FAO, 2015). In 2013, Brazil reached the following production level: world’s second largest agricultural exporter; together with the agri-food industries earned more than $86 billion (36% of total exports); largest sup- plier of soybeans, sugar, orange juice and coffee; a major exporter of tobacco and poultry; and high production of maize, rice and beef for the domestic market (OECD/FAO, 2015). The growth of Brazilian agriculture is widely credited to expan- sion in the use of the Brazilian Cerrado or savanna (Rada, 2013). Over recent decades, public policy has encouraged agricultural growth in this region. Since the 1970s, the Brazilian government has created funding programs for irrigation and modernization of agriculture; expansion of rural credit; investment in research and http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.046 0264-8377/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.