Ž . Research Policy 29 2000 847–870 www.elsevier.nlrlocatereconbase When shakeout doesn’t occur The evolution of the turboprop engine industry Andrea Bonaccorsi a, ) , Paola Giuri a,b a Sant’ Anna School of AdÕanced Studies, Pisa, Italy b SPRU, UniÕersity of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, UK Abstract Ž . A careful case study of the history of the turboprop engine industry 1948–1997 is offered as an example of non-shakeout pattern. The persistence of high concentration is not associated with the exit of smaller manufacturers, but instead a stable coexistence of generalist and specialist strategies emerges, in sharp contrast to the pattern observed in the, otherwise similar, jet engine industry. This paper identifies the relevant variables of a more general theory of industry life cycle by taking into account the lack of creation of significant increasing returns in R & D, manufacturing or marketing, all of which are commonly found in industries that produce systemic products. q 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Industrial dynamics; Industry life cycle; Increasing returns; Aircraft industry; Engine industry 1. Introduction The industry life cycle has become one of the most important models of long run industry evolu- tion, since it is consistent with most of the empirical evidence on industry growth and articulation. The importance of structural models of this kind cannot be undervalued. If their general validity can be demonstrated, they offer important elements for understanding the nature of competition at any given time in an industry and may provide useful prescrip- tions for strategic management decisions. Therefore, the problem of general validity of the model be- ) Corresponding author. Tel.: q 39-050-883343; fax: q 39-050-883344. Ž . E-mail addresses: bonaccorsi@sssup.it A. Bonaccorsi , Ž . giuri@sssup.it P. Giuri . comes crucial. This explains the attention which is given in the recent literature to observed anomalies, or to industries that apparently do not follow the predicted pattern. The paper has three main goals. First, it develops a detailed case history of the Ž entire life of the turboprop engine industry 1948– . 1997 , by taking advantage of a proprietary database, that we built upon several sources of data. In this industry the persistence of high concentration is not associated with the exit of smaller manufacturers, but instead a stable coexistence of generalist and special- ist strategies emerges, in sharp contrast to the pattern observed in the, otherwise similar, jet engine indus- try. Second, through the analysis of the case history, it contributes to a theory of non-shakeout pattern by operationalising some of the relevant variables. This 0048-7333r00r$ - see front matter q 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Ž . PII: S0048-7333 00 00109-8