85 Haddad: Syria’S Stalemate: tHe limitS of regime reSilience Syria’S Stalemate: the limitS of regime reSilience Bassam Haddad Dr. Haddad is the director of Middle East Studies at George Mason University and a founding editor of the Arab Studies Journal. © 2012, The Author Middle East Policy © 2012, Middle East Policy Council W e are witnessing in Syria a stalemate between regime and opposition. The battle has been constructed as a zero-sum game from the very beginning, in- creasing the stakes tremendously for all par- ties involved, most notably for the regime. The Syrian writer Hassan Abbas classifes the actors in the confrontation as follows: a. The army (particularly the Third and Fourth Divisions), the uniformed security forces and paramilitary groups (shabiha) b. Opposing groups that attempt to un- dermine the cohesion and impede the violent practices of the groups men- tioned under subheading “a,” including dissident army offcers and soldiers c. Nonviolent forces who confront the suppressing security apparatuses in demonstrations and protests d. Elements within the nonviolent groups who engage in violence and try to drag the others along. Social “incubators” nourish all the elements and provide material and moral support. This breakdown categorizes the ele- ments involved but does not spare any of them from critical examination — hence Abbas’s indication that there are social “incubators” who support both protest- ers and the regime. The protesters have external sources of support that do not always share their basic interests or may oppose the regime for their own reasons. The breakdown acknowledges the peace- ful and democratic nature of much of the opposition, especially its early iterations, but also points to the increasingly milita- rized elements that have confronted the regime, particularly from the summer of 2011 onward. This situation has enabled the regime to portray the opposition as a foreign-funded armed insurrection aimed at destabilizing Syria in the interest of foreign powers. SOCIAL AND STRUCTURAL FACTORS The complex terrain in Syria favors the state in the short to medium term, but not for the long term. For more than four de- cades, the regime has forged effective rela- tions and alliances within a multisectarian social structure. Comparatively speak- ing, there is a higher coherence at the top (the level of the regime), which prevents signifcant defections, and a heterogeneity within society, which undermines collec- tive action on a broad scale.