The Face of 2010: A Delphi Poll on the Future of Psychotherapy John C. Norcross and Melissa Hedges University of Scranton James O. Prochaska University of Rhode Island A panel of 62 psychotherapy experts using Delphi methodology predicted psychotherapy trends in the next decade. The observers forecasted changes in theoretical orientations, therapeutic interventions, psychotherapy providers, treatment formats, and future scenarios. Cognitive– behavior, culture-sensitive, cognitive, and eclectic/integrative theories were predicted to increase the most, whereas classical psychoanalysis, solution- focused theories, and transactional analysis were expected to decline. Directive, self-change, and technological interventions were judged to be in the ascendancy. Master’s-level psychotherapists along with “virtual” therapy services were expected to flourish. Forecast scenarios with the highest likelihood centered on expansion of evidence-based therapy, practice guidelines, behavioral medicine, and pharmacotherapy. What might the future of psychotherapy look like? What is hot and what is not in the new millennium? Where are the growth opportunities for psychologists? As we transition from the indus- trial era to an information era, it is imperative that we remain knowledgeable of how changes will impact psychotherapy, psy- chologists, and our patients (Lesse, 1987). As we move through the dawn of the new millennium, it is advantageous to reflect on where psychotherapy is heading. Every 10 years, starting in 1980 (Norcross, Alford, & DeMichele, 1992; Prochaska & Norcross, 1982), we have con- ducted a Delphi poll on the future of psychotherapy. The 36 experts in the initial poll anticipated a variety of changes in psychotherapy, such as the shift in theoretical orientation from psychoanalytic to cognitive– behavioral and the replacement of long-term therapy with briefer therapy. Their optimistic forecasts included an increase in female and minority therapists, accelerated services to underserved populations, coverage under national health insurance, and standard implementation of peer review. The 75 experts in our second Delphi poll, 10 years later, opined that self-help groups and social workers would proliferate and that the proportion of psychotherapy provided by psychiatrists would diminish. The results also predicted the centrality of program accreditation, psychotherapists becoming specialists rather than general practitioners, and mandatory certification/licensure of master’s-level mental health professionals. Although not without erroneous predictions (such as coverage under national health insurance), these studies have highlighted core forces that gradu- ally but persistently shape the face of psychotherapy. This updated and expanded study was designed to garner expert consensual predictions on psychotherapy during the next decade. What will the face of psychotherapy look like in the year 2010? JOHN C. NORCROSS is professor of psychology at the University of Scran- ton, a clinical psychologist in part-time independent practice, and editor of In Session: Journal of Clinical Psychology. His most recent books are Psychotherapy Relationships That Work, Authoritative Guide to Self-Help Resources in Mental Health (with five coauthors), and Insider’s Guide to Graduate Programs in Clinical and Counseling Psychology (with Tracy Mayne and Michael Sayetts). MELISSA HEDGES was a research assistant in the Department of Psychology at the University of Scranton and is now a doctoral candidate in clinical psychology at the University of Vermont. Her research interests focus on psychotherapy outcome, mood and anxiety disorders, and community- based interventions. JAMES O. PROCHASKA is professor of psychology and director of the Cancer Prevention Research Consortium at the University of Rhode Island. His 30 book chapters and over 175 scholarly articles focus on self-change, health promotion, and psychotherapy from a transtheoretical perspective, the subject of both his professional book, The Transtheoretical Approach (with Carlo DiClemente) and his popular book, Changing for Good (with John Norcross and Carlo DiClemente). PORTIONS OF THIS ARTICLE were presented at the 73rd Annual Meeting of the Eastern Psychological Association, Boston, March 2002. IT IS STANDARD PRACTICE in a Delphi poll to acknowledge the panel of experts. We are indebted to the following: Neil Altman, PhD; Hal Arkowitz, PhD; Diane B. Arnkoff, PhD; Allan E. Bergin, PhD; Ervin Betts, PhD; Larry E. Beutler, PhD; Annette M. Brodsky, PhD; Laura S. Brown, PhD; James F. T. Bugental, PhD; Gerald C. Davison, PhD; Patrick Henry DeLeon, PhD; E. Thomas Dowd, PhD; Paul Emmelkamp, PhD; Gary M. Farkas, PhD; Cyril M. Franks, PhD; Dolores E. Gallagher-Thompson, PhD; Sol L. Garfield, PhD; Earl Ginter, PhD; Carol R. Glass, PhD; Jerold Gold, PhD; Marvin R. Goldfried, PhD; Leslie S. Greenberg, PhD; Thomas Greening, PhD; Alan S. Gurman, PhD; David A. Haaga, PhD; William A. Hargreaves, PhD; Michel Hersen, PhD; Marcia Hill, EdD; Kenneth A. Holroyd, PhD; Mardi J. Horowitz, MD; T. Byram Karasu, MD; Paul Karoly, PhD; Jerald Kay, MD; Sharon M. Keigher, PhD; Philip C. Kendall, PhD; Mary Beth Kenkel, PhD; David P. Kniskern, PhD; Gerald P. Koocher, PhD; Arnold A. Lazarus, PhD; Peter Lewinsohn, PhD; Zanvel A. Liff, PhD; Lester Luborsky, PhD; Michael J. Mahoney, PhD; Barbara S. McCrady, PhD; Stanley B. Messer, PhD; Dana L. Moore, PhD; Thomas H. Ollendick, PhD; Donald R. Peterson, PhD; Nancy Porter-Steele, PhD; Malcolm H. Robertson, PhD; Richard Sauber, PhD; Monique Savlin, PhD; Robert T. Segraves, PhD; Wade H. Silverman, PhD; John J. Steffen, PhD; William B. Stiles, PhD; George Stricker, PhD; Phoebus N. Tongas, PhD; Robert Ursano, PhD; Gary R. VandenBos, PhD; Paul L. Wachtel, PhD; and G. Terence Wilson, PhD. CORRESPONDENCE CONCERNING THIS ARTICLE should be addressed to John C. Norcross, Department of Psychology, University of Scranton, Scranton, Pennsylvania 18510-4596. E-mail: norcross@scranton.edu Professional Psychology: Research and Practice Copyright 2002 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 2002, Vol. 33, No. 3, 316 –322 0735-7028/02/$5.00 DOI: 10.1037//0735-7028.33.3.316 316