Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2015, 5(10):1174-1186
† Corresponding author
DOI: 10.18488/journal.aefr/2015.5.10/102.10.1174.1186
ISSN(e): 2222-6737/ISSN(p): 2305-2147
© 2015 AESS Publications. All Rights Reserved.
1174
EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN
SOUTH AFRICA: (2000-2014)
Wilson Chamunorwa
1
--- Ireen Choga
2†
1
Department of Economics, University of Fort Hare, South Africa
2
School of Economics and Decisions Sciences, North West University, South Africa
ABSTRACT
This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export
performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of
exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined
using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade
openness, and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish weather exchange rate
volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by econometric
model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect
of South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
© 2015 AESS Publications. All Rights Reserved.
Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Export performance, GARCH, Trade openness, South Africa.
Contribution/ Originality
This study contributes in the existing literature that asserts that exchange rate volatility impacts
negatively on export performance. GARCH method has been employed to connect the rand
volatility to export volumes. It emerged that exchange rate volatility risk reduce gains to
international trade. Exporting firms tend to export fewer products to destinations with higher
currency volatility. The finding of this research is that exchange rate volatility impacts negatively
on the firms exporting behaviour.
1. INTRODUCTION
The exchange rate of a country plays a pivotal role in public debate on trade and trade policy in
South Africa. Like many developing countries, South Africa‟s economic success depends on the
rest of the world. The level of interdependence has increased from the previous decade as we move
towards an era of free trade. This means it is highly influenced by changes in world demand and
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