NATO, the Baltic states and Russia: a framework for sustainable enlargement International Affairs 78,  () ‒ MARK KRAMER º NATO is about to initiate its second round of enlargement since the end of the Cold War. In the late 1990s three central European countries—Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland—were admitted into the alliance. At a summit due to be held in Prague on 21–22 November 2002, the NATO heads of state are likely to invite at least four and possibly as many as six or seven additional countries to join. In total, ten former communist countries have applied for membership. 1 Seven of the prospective new members—Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Macedonia—lie outside the former Soviet Union. Of these, the least controversial candidate is Slovenia. Slovakia’s chances were once very good, but the return of the demagogic leader Vladimír Meciar to national political prominence has impeded its candidacy. Romania and Bulgaria do not yet meet most of NATO’s political and military require- ments, but both countries stand an outside chance of gaining membership because of their current and potential contributions to US and allied military operations in the Middle East. The three other aspiring members of NATO—Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia—would in the normal course of events have been prime candidates from the very start, but their status was complicated because they were republics of the Soviet Union until August 1991. Until recently, the Russian government had vehemently objected to the proposed admission of the Baltic states into NATO, and many Western leaders were reluctant to antagonize Moscow. Since 2001, however, the extension of NATO membership to the Baltic states during the second round of enlargement has become far more plausible and indeed probable. The various parties involved—NATO, the Baltic states and Russia—have all modified their positions in small but significant ways. Progress 1 In principle, only nine of these ten countries are eligible for consideration at the Prague summit. Croatia, which in the 1990s was embroiled in warfare and under the autocratic rule of Franjo Tudjman (who died in December 1999), was not admitted into NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) until May 2002, three years after the other candidate countries entered the MAP. Normally, at least three years of participation in the MAP are required before a country’s request for official candidacy can be accepted. Hence, unless an exception is made, the soonest that Croatia can formally be considered for membership is 2005.