Downscaling of Precipitation using Multiple
Linear Regression over Rajasthan State
POONAM MAHLA,
1
* A.K. LOHANI,
2
V. K. CHANDOLA,
3
ARADHANA THAKUR,
3
C.D. MISHRA
4
and APARAJITA SINGH
3
1
Department of Watershed Development and Soil Conservation, Laxmangarh, Sikar, Rajasthan, India.
2
National institute of hydrology, Jalvigyan bhawan, roorkee 247667, India.
3
Department of Farm Engineering, IAS, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, U.P., 221005, India.
4
Collage of agriculture, Fatehpur Shekhawati, SKNAU, Jobner, Rajasthan, India.
Abstract
Statistical downscaling method is mainly practiced to relate atmospheric
circulation to surface variables for forecast and prediction of the regional
climate. As we know in Rajasthan drought is foremost problem due to scanty
of rainfall. The core objective of present study stands to prognosis rainfall
variation also assess the recital of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to
access the variation in rainfall. The data were analyzed using higher resolution
atmospheric data which includes daily National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP)/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
reanalysis data and daily mean climate model result intended for A2 and
B2 scenarios of the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) model. The
period from 1961-1990 used as base line due to availability of adequate
period which are required to established a reliable climatology. Results of
the study shows increasing trend of future precipitation intended for both
A2 and B2 scenarios. From the study it has been found that MLR model is
more superior to downscale precipitation in most districts under study area.
Current World Environment
www.cwejournal.org
ISSN: 0973-4929, Vol. 14, No. (1) 2019, Pg. 68-98
CONTACT Poonam Mahla poonammahla11@gmail.com Department of Watershed Development and Soil Conservation,
Laxmangarh, Sikar, Rajasthan, India.
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Enviro Research Publishers.
This is an Open Access article licensed under a Creative Commons license: Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY).
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CWE.14.1.09
Article History
Received: 22 November 18
Accepted: 28 April 2019
Keywords
Downscaling;
Precipitation;
Scenarios;
Temperature.
Introduction
The natural as well as socioeconomic variability
of state Rajasthan which includes water resource
management, agriculture, forestry, tourism etc. are
highly infuenced by key component of hydrological
cycle i.e. precipitation. Therefore, it is necessitated
for predicting future precipitation change since it
is an input for climate impact model to assess the
consequences of global change in climate. GCMs
under climate input model often found inadequate
due to limited depiction of mesoscale atmospheric
processes, topography and sea distribution. Besides,