Research Article
Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for
Predicting Crude Oil Demand in Saudi Arabia
Eman H. Alkhammash ,
1
Abdelmonaim Fakhry Kamel ,
2
Saud M. Al-Fattah ,
3
and Ahmed M. Elshewey
4
1
Department of Computer Science, College of Computers and Information Technology, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099,
Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia
2
Faculty of Graduate Environmental Studies, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
3
Saudi Aramco, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
4
Faculty of Computers and Information, Computer Science Department, Suez University, Suez, Egypt
Correspondence should be addressed to Eman H. Alkhammash; hms_1406@hotmail.com and Ahmed M. Elshewey; elshewy86@
gmail.com
Received 4 November 2021; Revised 16 December 2021; Accepted 24 December 2021; Published 10 January 2022
Academic Editor: Jorge E. Macias-Diaz
Copyright © 2022 Eman H. Alkhammash et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
is paper presents optimized linear regression with multivariate adaptive regression splines (LR-MARS) for predicting crude oil
demand in Saudi Arabia based on social spider optimization (SSO) algorithm. e SSO algorithm is applied to optimize LR-MARS
performance by fine-tuning its hyperparameters. e proposed prediction model was trained and tested using historical oil data
gathered from different sources. e results suggest that the demand for crude oil in Saudi Arabia will continue to increase during
the forecast period (1980–2015). A number of predicting accuracy metrics including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Median
Absolute Error (MedAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R
2
) were
used to examine and verify the predicting performance for various models. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was also applied to
reveal the predicting result of the crude oil demand in Saudi Arabia and also to compare the actual test data and predict results
between different predicting models. e experimental results show that optimized LR-MARS model performs better than other
models in predicting the crude oil demand.
1. Introduction
e development of prediction techniques and machine
learning models is a critical task for crude oil demand [1].
e prediction techniques can predict different features in
oil [2] including oil price, oil demand, oil viscosity, etc.
Prediction models and techniques can present many ad-
vantages in energy sector such as energy planning, strategy
formulation, and energy advancement. e design of pre-
diction models and techniques is a complex task which has
huge impacts for the economic trajectories of countries,
energy companies, and other industrial sectors [3].
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the
global demand for crude oil accounted for about 41% of the
total fuel share in 2016. According to the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia is one
of the world’s largest oil consumers, ranking fifth after
Russia with a 3.4% share of global oil consumption in 2016.
ere are numerous models that support the crude oil
demand prediction, including autoregressive conditional
heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model [4], other time series
models, artificial neural networks [5], and fuzzy theory
predictions [6, 7].
Machine learning models play an important role in the
evaluation and prediction tasks. e features included in the
dataset can be used to perform predictions. Machine
learning models can also perform future predictions based
on the available in the dataset [8]. Regression analysis is a
Hindawi
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2022, Article ID 8412895, 9 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/8412895