Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2019. Vol. 5. Iss. 3. P. 93–97. DOI: 10.12737/stp-53201911. © 2019 V.G. Grigoryev, S.A. Starodubtsev, P.Yu. Gololobov. Published by INFRA-M Academic Publishing House Original Russian version: V.G. Grigoryev, S.A. Starodubtsev, P.Yu. Gololobov, published in Solnechno-zemnaya fizika. 2019. Vol. 5. Iss. 3. P. 110–115. DOI: 10.12737/szf-53201911. © 2019 INFRA-M Academic Publishing House (Nauchno-Izdatelskii Tsentr INFRA-M) This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license MONITORING OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES USING THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHOD IN REAL TIME V.G. Grigoryev Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS, Yakutsk, Russia, grig@ikfia.ysn.ru S.A. Starodubtsev Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS, Yakutsk, Russia, starodub@ikfia.ysn.ru P.Yu. Gololobov Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS, Yakutsk, Russia, gpeter@ikfia.ysn.ru Abstract. A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) compo- nents of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effec- tive criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geo- magnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest. Keywords: cosmic rays, neutron monitor, global sur- vey, geomagnetic storms, zonal components, predictors. INTRODUCTION One of the most important and topical areas of modern research into cosmic ray (CR) intensity variations is the forecast of geoeffective disturbances of the solar wind (SW). The earlier studies [Dvornikov et al., 1988, 1995; Dvornikov, Sdobnov, 1995] of CR rigidity spectrum varia- tions have shown the possibility of long-term forecasting of sporadic geoeffective SW disturbances. From further works [Munakata et al., 2000; Belov et al., 2001; Dorman et al., 2003; Munakata et al., 2005] it follows that most intense geomagnetic storms (K p >7) have obvious pre- cursors in the behavior of galactic CR intensity and an- gular distribution according to data from both neutron monitors and muon telescopes. Currently there are already methods for forecasting interplanetary medium disturb- ances from the CR anisotropy analysis relying on data from a limited number of stations [http://neutronm. bar- tol.udel.edu/spaceweather; http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/ Ani- sotropyCR/mainhtm; http://www.mustang.uni-greifswald. de/spaceweather.htm]. Since 2008, SHICRA SB RAS has continuously monitored parameters of CR diurnal anisot- ropy in real-time mode, using hourly data from only one station — the Yakutsk CR spectrograph after A.I. Kuzmin — in order to explore the possibility of forecasting terres- trial effects of space weather [Grigoryev et al., 2008; http://www.ysn.ru/~starodub/SpaceWeather/currents_ real_time.html]. The analysis of the monitoring results has shown that with a probability of ~0.7 the appearance of the stable negative radial component of diurnal anisotropy A<– 0.4 % simultaneously in data from a neutron monitor and ground muon telescope, which have different sensitivities to the energy of detected CR, is associated with the ap- proach of a disturbed SW region to Earth. The global survey method developed in SHICRA SB RAS in the late 1960s – early 1970s based on measurements of the worldwide network of neutron monitors [Krymsky et al., 1981] allows us to deter- mine high- and low-frequency parts of isotropic in- tensity, as well as eight components of the first two harmonics of CR angular distribution for each obser- vation hour. It is important to emphasize that in this case all ground-based CR detectors having its own characteristics (geomagnetic cutoff rigidities, recep- tion cones, etc.) act as a single multidirectional de- vice. Using the results obtained by this method, we have examined the behavior of the CR diurnal anisot- ropy vector 11 A  before onsets of geomagnetic storms with Dst≤– 50 nT, observed in 2012–2013 [Grigo- ryev, Starodubtsev, 2015]. We have established that over a period from several hours to days before onsets of most geomagnetic storms, 11 A  exhibits characteris- tic variations, which are not observed during periods of quiet SW. The use of these A 11 variations as pre- cursors has, however, a serious drawback — they also appear during SW disturbances that occur with- out geomagnetic storms. The relationship between SW disturbances and subsequent observations of storms has been considered in detail in [Shadrina et al., 2012a, b, 2014; Plotnikov et al., 2014], and to en- hance its understanding the authors proposed the so- called Forbush-storm classification of events. The international database of neutron monitors NMDB [http://www.nmdb.eu] established in 2007 made it possible to use the global survey method in real-time mode. This, in turn, allowed us to implement the meth- od of short-term (from several hours to ~1 day) forecast-