Sci.Int,(Lahore),26(3),1227-1231,2014 ISSN 1013-5316; CODEN: SINTE 8 1227 MODELING OF MANGO PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN M. Nouman Qureshi, *M. Bilal, *R. M. Ayyub, *Samia Ayyub Govt. Degree College Sharaqpur, Pakistan *University of Veterinary & Animal Sciences Lahore, Pakistan (Corresponding author: drranaayyub@gmail.com) ABSTRACT-A study of mango production in Pakistan has been carried out in this research. The forecast model has been developed for the mango production in Pakistan. The data for this study was obtained from 50-Years of Pakistan in statistics volume (1947-2012) [1], Economic Survey of Pakistan [9], Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan and Hydrological & Metrological Department of Weather Bureau Punjab. Three explanatory variables (Area, Temperature and rainfall) have been included in the model due to their practical significance.Mango is an important fruit of the country. All the provinces have their share in the total production of this fruit across the country. In this paper, ARIMA-X model has been fitted to forecast the mango production. The best model has been selected by comparing the estimates of the coefficients in the ARIMA-X models to ensure that the process is stationary / invertible, the standard error of regression, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) & Schwarz information criterion (SIC) and Durbin- Watson test statistic. Different types of diagnostic checks have been applied on the residuals to ensure the adequacy of the estimated models. Key words Production of Mango, Temperature, Rainfall, Area and ARIMA-X. INTRODUCTION Pakistan has a rich and vast natural resource base covering various ecological and climatic zones; hence the country has great potential for producing all types of commodities. Agriculture is the hub of economic activity in Pakistan. It lays down foundation for economic development and growth of the economy. It directly contributes 25% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides employment of 44% of the total labor force of the country. Fruits production is playing a significant role in the economy of Pakistan. The climate condition of Pakistan is quite suitable for the production of various tropical and sub- tropical fruits. Especially agricultural climate of Indus plans is very well suited for all types of fruits production in Pakistan. Total production of various types of fruits is 5,751,800 (000) tons under the area of 681,070 hectors. [1]. Mango is one of the most popular, nutritionally wealthy and health promotingfruit.Mango has won the title of "king of fruits" due to its excellent flavor and delicious taste. Besides being a rich source of vitamins C and A, it also contains formidable amount of proteins, sugars, organic acids, ascorbic acid, carbohydrates and minerals. Mango is the delicious fruit cultivated in less than ninety tropical and sub tropical countries in the entire world. About 1595 varieties of mango are identified in the whole world. Pakistan is standing at 4 th rank of mango producer and exporter. At present it is grown on an area of 170.1 (000) acres with production 1727.9 (000) tones.The principle commercial cultivars of Pakistan are: Chaunsa, Dashehari, Anwar Ratul, Gulab-e-Khas, Langra, Siroli, Sindhri, Swarm, Rekha, Zafran, Maldha and Fajri. In 1960 the total area under mango cultivation was 79 thousand acres. Fig.1 shows a consistent increase in production area, increasing to 420.50 thousand acres in the year 2008-09. Fig. 1. Total cultivated area of mango production in Pakistan. The production of mango was 202.00 thousand tones in 1960 and has increased to 1727.93 thousand tones in 2008- 09. Fig. 2. Total mango production in Pakistan Saifullah et al. [2] studied to assess communication gap concerning plant protection, harvesting and post harvest technologies among mango growers of tehsil Muzaffergarh. The results showed that the lack of information about recommended harvesting and post-harvest technologies on