International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology (IJEAT) ISSN: 2249 – 8958, Volume-2 Issue-1, October 2012 249 Published By: Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering & Sciences Publication Retrieval Number: A0745102112/2012©BEIESP Abstract - The rapid growth in vehicles population has put enormous strains in all urban roads in Indian cities with population between 1 to 2 million. The major factors influencing public transport ridership are poor service quality and more traveling time. This study presents a quantitative model and identified the factors that affect the public transport ridership. A weighed regression model using data of public preferences in travel time, travel cost, and other quality related parameters is build and probability of two wheeler users switching over to public transport is estimated. With this model, the expected increase in public transport ridership for Bhopal and similar Indian cities can be approximated. This model can also assist transport planners and service providers to find innovative and financially viable solutions for better public transport facilities. Key words: Public transport demand estimation, travel behavior, demand parameters I. INTRODUCTION Traffic congestion is one of the most important and critical problems in most of large cities in developing countries. This is due to high urbanization, increase in number of vehicles, rapid growth of population, improvement of income level, inefficient public transport service, poor traffic management etc. Figure 1 shows the growth of vehicles in India. Fig. 1: Forecast of Vehicle Populations in India Source: Ministry of urban transport 2010 In large cities especially more than one million populations such as Nagpur, Pune, Surat, Indore, Bhopal etc which will be the metropolitan towns in near future; Delay, congestion, air pollution and vibration are challenging issues [1]. In order to alleviate these problems, various measures and actions have been planned and implemented such as road-network extension, transport management schemes, Manuscript Received on October, 2012 Ar Anuj Jaiswal, Department of Architecture and Planning, MANIT, Bhopal, India. Ashutosh Sharma, Department of Architecture and Planning, MANIT, Bhopal, India. Jigyasa Bisaria, Visiting Faculty, School of Planning & Architecture, Bhopal, India. traffic restraints, public transport policies, etc. It is therefore necessary to understand the travel pattern of commuters and their choice of transport mode. Fig. 2: Details of Urban Trips in Indian Cities (Based on City Size) Source: Census 2011 It is evident from Figure 2 that more people prefer private transport to public in medium sized cities specially cities ranging population between one to two million [2]. This is mainly due to poor service quality and more travel time. The current scenario thus differs significantly from the desired modal split (Table 1) of mass transport [3]. Table 1: Desirable Modal Split in Indian Cities (as a % of Total Trips) Source: Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, New Delhi (1998) City Population (in millions) Mass Transport Bicycle Other Modes < 5 lakhs 30-40 30-40 25-35 5-10 lakhs 40-50 25-35 20-30 10-20 lakhs 50-60 20-30 15-25 20-50 lakhs 60-70 15-25 10-20 50 lakhs + 70-85 15-20 10-15 The main reasons of imbalance in modal split are:  Inadequate transport infrastructure, and  Sub-optimal use of existing transport infrastructure. The existing public transport systems in the Indian cities have not been able to keep pace with the rapid and substantial increases in demand over the past few decades. Particularly the bus services have much deteriorated, and their relative output is further getting reduced as passengers are continuously switching to personalized modes and intermediate public transport [1]. Therefore the analysis of issues in public transport ridership is significant. Recently the research effort focused on increasing the public transport Estimation of Public Transport Demand in Million Plus Indian Cities based on Travel Behavior Ar Anuj Jaiswal, Ashutosh Sharma, Jigyasa Bisaria