Citation: Bal, S.K.; Chandran, M.A.S.;
Madhavan, S.V.; Rao,A.V.M.S.;
Manikandan, N.; Praveen Kumar, R.;
Parameswaran, P.V.; Attri, S.D.;
Singh, P.; Mohanty, A.; et al. Water
Demand in Maize Is Projected to
Decrease under Changing Climate in
India. Sustainability 2022, 14, 1419.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031419
Academic Editor: Netrananda Sahu
Received: 12 November 2021
Accepted: 19 January 2022
Published: 26 January 2022
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sustainability
Article
Water Demand in Maize Is Projected to Decrease under
Changing Climate in India
Santanu Kumar Bal
1
, Malamal Alickal Sarath Chandran
1,
* , Sandeep Vadakkemethel Madhavan
1
,
Abburi Venkata Maruthi Subba Rao
1
, Narayanan Manikandan
1
, Ramagiri Praveen Kumar
1
,
Pramod Valiyaparambil Parameswaran
1
, Shiv Dev Attri
2
, Priyanka Singh
2
, Ashutosh Mohanty
3,
*
and Vinod Kumar Singh
1
1
ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad 500059, India;
santanu.bal@icar.gov.in (S.K.B.); vmsandeep@gmail.com (S.V.M.); avms.rao@icar.gov.in (A.V.M.S.R.);
metsate@gmail.com (N.M.); ramagiri.praveen594@gmail.com (R.P.K.); pramodvp1@gmail.com (P.V.P.);
vks.pdfsr@gmail.com (V.K.S.)
2
India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India; sdattri@gmail.com (S.D.A.);
cpriyanka04@gmail.com (P.S.)
3
Faculty of Science and Technology, Madhyanchal Professional University, R&D Cell, Ratibad,
Bhopal 462044, Madhya Pradesh, India
* Correspondence: sarathagri@gmail.com (M.A.S.C.); drashutoship@gmail.com (A.M.)
Abstract: Crop stage-specific information on the impacts of projected climate change on crop and
irrigation water requirements are essential for improving productivity. This study investigated the
possible implications of projected climate change on the phenology, effective rainfall (P
eff
), crop
(CWR) and irrigation water requirements (IWR) of maize in eight locations in India. CWR, P
eff
and
IWR were estimated for seven crop stages viz., emergence, 5th leaf stage, tasseling, silking, milking,
dough and maturity during the baseline (1980–2009) and near-century (2022–39) using climate data
derived from a subset of 29 general circulation models. The results indicated that mean seasonal
maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were projected to increase in all the
locations. Hence, the total crop duration (3–7 days), CWR (8–69 mm) and IWR (1–54 mm) were
projected to decrease. The study could identify the specific stages in which the greatest reduction in
crop duration, CWR and IWR would occur. Such information will be of immense help to farmers and
varietal improvement programs in the study regions in the near future.
Keywords: GCMs; weighted average ensemble; phenology; effective rainfall; crop water requirement;
irrigation water requirement
1. Introduction
Water availability is critical for human settlement, agriculture production, and animal
husbandry. Population growth, industrialization, and urbanization have all resulted in the
increased use of water resources over the centuries. Due to these factors, the worldwide
water demand has increased at a rate of 1% each year since 1980 [1]. Because of industrial
and domestic needs, global water usage would grow by 20–30%, putting more than 2 billion
people in high water stress and over 4 billion people in severe water scarcity for at least a
month each year. Simultaneously, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal-6
aims to ensure the availability and long-term management of water resources for all people
everywhere [2].
In India, almost 81% of water resources are utilized by agriculture [3]. A rise in
temperature as a result of global warming necessitates additional water for agriculture
in order to meet crop evapotranspiration requirements [4,5]. The global mean surface
temperature increased by 0.8–1.3
◦
C between 1850 and 1900 and from 2000 to 2019, while
global surface temperature is expected to continue to rise until the mid-21st century [6].
Sustainability 2022, 14, 1419. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031419 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability