Domestic transport effects on regional export trade in Greece Theodore Tsekeris Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE), 11Amerikis, 10672, Athens, Greece article info Article history: Received 15 October 2015 Received in revised form 21 July 2016 Accepted 25 August 2016 Available online xxx JEL classification: C23 F14 O18 R12 R42 Keywords: Regional export trade Accessibility Transport infrastructure Spillover effects Dynamic spatial panel model Greece abstract This paper examines the role of domestic transport on regional export trade in Greece. It aims to un- derstand how changes in the transport conditions of a region can affect its own and neighboring regions' ability to improve foreign trade. The proposed dynamic spatial panel model extends previous ones in the scant related literature, by accounting for spillover effects and own time lagged responses of export flows to changes in variables related, among others, to network distance and accessibility. The results suggest a considerable number of indirect (spatially lagged) effects that are significant for the regional export trade, including those of highway corridors. Agglomeration economies positively affect manufacturing exports by ship and truck in the own prefecture, while manufacturing specialization has a significant impact on maritime transport. It is also shown that failure to account for long-run responses can significantly underestimate the effect of changes in the distance to major transport facilities on export volume. Especially the enhancement of interregional accessibility and market potential has a major impact on the agricultural exports by road. The findings have implications for the coordination of regional investment policies and the planning of the mainland transport system in connection with the location of logistics hubs. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Transport of goods is widely recognized as a catalyst for the economic development of a region. The economic effects of the construction of freight-related transport systems and the improvement of existing ones may significantly vary and interact across different geographical ranges and span multiple timescales. These effects further vary with the mode of transport and the type of improvement, the economic sector and the category of com- modity. As far as the export trade is concerned, the spatial structure and dynamics of the systems of production and distribution of goods to the transport hubs can have a crucial impact on the export performance of each region within a country. Specifically, the suitable exploitation of the comparative advantages of a region, in terms of its natural resources, climate, and the availability of and the closeness and access to national and international transport corridors have historically proven to exercise a strong influence on the growth of the amount and value of goods moved from/to foreign markets, relative to other regions (Ioannides, 2013). The related literature has recently given an increasing attention to the relationship between the geographical distribution of the cost of transporting a good from the places of production to the ports (or other transport nodes) of export and the development of the connected regions (Artuc, Iootty, & Pirlea, 2014; Celbis, Nijkamp, & Poot, 2014; Matthee & Naud e, 2008; Storeygard, 2013). The domestic cost of export trade is regarded as more elastic to the temporal and spatial variations of freight demand and of the related transport system characteristics, in terms of its accessibility, capacity and quality of services, compared to other trade costs which are relatively fixed across regions, such as those for the documents preparation, customs clearance and cargo handling at terminals. Consequently, the success of policies to enhance export trade development in a region necessitates the holistic treatment of both the time and spatial dimensions of the domestic transport and logistics system. This paper suggests a comprehensive methodological approach to model the production of regional export flows in Greece, as a function of the country's internal geography, economy and trans- port conditions. The proposed econometric model, which refers to the general dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM), represents the E-mail address: tsek@kepe.gr. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Research in Transportation Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/retrec http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2016.08.006 0739-8859/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Research in Transportation Economics xxx (2016) 1e13 Please cite this article in press as: Tsekeris, T., Domestic transport effects on regional export trade in Greece, Research in Transportation Economics (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2016.08.006