Research Article
OntheDynamicsofaFractional-OrderEbolaEpidemicModelwith
Nonlinear Incidence Rates
Mirirai Chinyoka ,
1
Tinashe B. Gashirai ,
2
and Steady Mushayabasa
1
1
Department of Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe
2
Department of Applied Mathematics, National University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 939 Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Correspondence should be addressed to Steady Mushayabasa; steadymushaya@gmail.com
Received 7 August 2021; Revised 14 October 2021; Accepted 2 November 2021; Published 3 December 2021
Academic Editor: Yuriy Rogovchenko
Copyright © 2021 Mirirai Chinyoka et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
We propose a new fractional-order model to investigate the transmission and spread of Ebola virus disease. e proposed model
incorporates relevant biological factors that characterize Ebola transmission during an outbreak. In particular, we have assumed
that susceptible individuals are capable of contracting the infection from a deceased Ebola patient due to traditional beliefs and
customs practiced in many African countries where frequent outbreaks of the disease are recorded. We conducted both epidemic
and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number. Model parameters
were estimated based on the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. In addition, numerical simulation results are presented to
demonstrate the analytical findings.
1.Introduction
In recent decades, fractional calculus theory has been applied
in many fields such as mechanical and mechanics, visco-
elasticity, bioengineering, finance, optimal theory, optical
and thermal system, and electromagnetic field theory [1–3].
Prior studies have shown that fractional calculus is capable
of describing rules and development process of some phe-
nomena in natural science [1]. In particular, it has been
found that the fractional-order differential system has the
advantages of simple modeling, clear parameter meaning,
and accurate description for some materials and processes
with memory and genetic characteristics [4]. Hence, there is
growing interest among researchers to study the role of
fractional calculus on modeling real-world problems. One
field that has attracted a lot of interest in the application of
fractional calculus is mathematical modeling of infectious
diseases [2, 3].
In this paper, a fractional-order Ebola epidemic model
that incorporates nonlinear incidence rates is proposed and
analyzed. A plethora of mathematical models have been
proposed to explain, predict as well as quantify the effec-
tiveness of different Ebola virus disease (EVD) intervention
strategies since the 2004 when the largest outbreak occurred
in Africa (see, for example, [5–14], and references therein).
ese studies and those cited therein have certainly pro-
duced many useful results and improved the existing on
Ebola dynamics. One of the limitations of these models,
however, is that in most of the studies, the authors were
utilizing integer-order mathematical modeling approach
except in few recent studies such as [12–14].
In those studies that were based upon fractional calculus,
most of the models used the bilinear incidence approach, to
describe the spread of the disease. One limitation of the
bilinear incidence function is that it assumes that the disease
transmission increases whenever the susceptible population
increases. is is highly unlikely in practice since an out-
break of any disease is followed by pharmaceutical and
nonpharmaceutical interventions. ese intervention
strategies lead to a saturation in the available population. In
mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, the incidence
rate is defined as the number of infected individuals per unit
time, and it regarded as an important tool for effectively
mapping short- and long-term dynamics of the disease [15].
ere are several saturated incidence functions in literatures
[15, 16]. Among them, the Crowley–Martin function
Hindawi
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2021, Article ID 2125061, 12 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/2125061