© IEEE 2021. This article is free to access and download, along with rights for full text and data mining, re-use and analysis. Comparison of Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia and Other Countries for Prediction Models in Indonesia Using Optimization in SEIR Epidemic Models 1 st Nana Ramadijanti Informatics and Computer Department PENS Surabaya, Indonesia nana@pens.ac.id 2 nd Mu’arifin Informatics and Computer Department PENS Surabaya, Indonesia muarifin@pens.ac.id 3 rd Achmad Basuki Creative Multimedia Tech Departement PENS Surabaya,Indonesia basuki@pens.ac.id Abstract— Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 is a new disease that can cause respiratory and inflammatory disorders. As a new model virus the general public has difficulty finding its match and then consider it trivial. The spread of the disease caused by COVID virus 19 is set to become a pandemic by the WHO as of March 12, 2020. Development of covid-19 pandemic data in Indonesia, has claimed 1089 lives on May 17, 2020 (source: http: //covid19.bnpb.go.id/) and is a major threat to global public health especially Indonesia. The pandemic behavior in one area can be learned by comparing behavior in other regions. We propose SEIR epidemic models (S = Suspect, E = Expose, I = Infected, and R = Recovered) to predict the behavior of covid-19 transmission in Indonesia with parameters of distribution, cure rate, mortality rate, communication rate and movement. The appropriate parameters to predict the behavior of the Covid-19 virus spreading in Indonesia, firstly, the number of cases that occurred in Indonesia are compared with other countries that were first exposed to this pandemic. Several countries in Asia, Australia, Europe and America are chosen for comparison. Comparisons are performed by examining the maximum correlation values in each country. The pattern of the number of cases that occurred in Indonesia is very similar to the UK, Malaysia and Australia. The first prediction maximum number of new cases per daily is 1,343 people occurring on May 15, 2020. The end of the pandemic is predicted on August 8-10, 2020 (circumstance 1). The second prediction maximum number of new cases per daily is 1,034 people occurring on May 30, 2020. The end of the pandemic is predicted on September 9-10, 2020 (circumstance 2). The SEIR model for predicting the number of Covid-19 cases is sufficient when there is no further development of this pandemic. Keywords— COVID-19, virus behaviour, comparison number cases, maximum correlation, SEIR model epidemic I. INTRODUCTION The development of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia is currently increasing, similar to many countries in Europe, especially Britain. The government has given a warning and an appeal to do social distancing as a solution to inhibit the growing rate of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia. In contrary, the public has not been able to carry out the appeal for various reasons. If the situation cannot be altered, the case number of Covid-19 will be unmanageably spreading. If the number of cases continue to rise, it is not impossible that the government will issue a decision to lock-down. This decision is considerably very difficult and will quickly bring down the country's economy. The lock-down decision so far has not been chosen because of its intangible risks. Nevertheless, that does not mean there is no possibility to lock-down. The Indonesian government has implemented work and study at home as a form of social distance. Various appeals to stay at home are advertised in various media, to reduce the rate of growth of the Covid-19 case. Thus, some questions arise, such as: how long social distancing should take place. Social distance will make people more likely to stay at home. Consequently, this will affect the economy, especially for those who work daily like a driver, handyman, stall and others. II. LITERATURE REVIEW Nuning implemented the mathematical model for the spreading of Covid-19. The mathematical model that was implemented is a logistic model called Richard’s Curve or Richard's Curve [1]. This model is used during the SARS endemic model in Hong-Kong in 2003. The model was developed as shown in formula (1). ) ) ( 1 ( α K y y a r dt dy - = (1) Where: r = initial growth rate (person / day) K = the patient's upper limit assumption (carrying capacity) a = asymptotic effect [2]. The solution of the differential equation above is: (2) To predict the number of growths in this Covid-19 case, the optimum value for r, K and a values are found using the Least Square method. /20/$31.00 ©2020 IEEE 978-1-6654-0422-8