Preparation of tourism development scenarios in Qhaen city in 1404 Mohammad Rahim Rahnama 1 , Marzieh Amini* 2 Faculty Member, Department of Geography and Urban Planning Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Ferdowsi Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. Emsil :Rahnamarahim@gmail.com * Ph.D. student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Ferdowsi Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. Email: amini7380@gmail.com Abstract - Tourism as an effective tool to continue the process of political, cultural and economic development of countries is of particular interest. This research is about identifying the main factors and drawing the believable future in tourism in Qayen. The statistical population of this research includes 15 experts in the field of urban tourism and planning. The data collection method was selected based on the Schwartz pattern and STEEP method (5 main criteria including economic, social, political, social, and technology). The data analysis tool is MIC MAC software were selected. The results show that most of the relationships between the variables are estimated to have 3 or very strong effects Therefore, five factors of the tendency of the province economy to diversify its tourism species, the share of private sectors of the tourism economy, government ownership, specialized human resources, the existence of tourism offices, and construction and reinforcement of tourism infrastructure) were selected as the key factors that have the greatest impact on desirable scenario in the path to tourism in Qayen On the horizon of 1404 Keywords: Tourism scenario, crossover impact analysis, Mick Mack, Qayen city Introduction Throughout history, human beings have always been enthusiastic about discovering the future and decoding it based on the inner action. The questions such as “is the future changeable?”, “is the future continuation of the present and the past?”, and “what will happen in the future?” were the challenges of managers’ programing heretofore. They have used different approaches to dealing with future issues, often based on analyzing past processes and continuing them in the future. But in the beginning of the third millennium the foresight science transformed non-coherent and diffused researches in the area of planning to scientifically sound, with rigorous principles and precise methods. Using these methods helps to analyze the processes of the past and discover, devise, and evaluate the possible, probable and desirable future or change it if necessary (Zali et al. 2012).Foresight is widely used today. Therefore, decision makers in the field of geography and urban and regional planning in a world full of transformation require the development of new approaches for prediction and readiness for the future. Meanwhile, one of these important issues which plays a very important role in the economic development of cities and villages and may cause economic growth improvement and increase individuals' life quality by foresight and designing of scenario, is development of the tourism industry (Khatai, and Mousavi, 2008). In fact, tourism is becoming one of the main pillars of the world's commercial economy and many planners mention it as to be the main pillar of development. Tourism is one of the important activities that have enjoyed a special status in the economic development of some countries in recent decades (MirKatouli et al. 2011). As economists call it invisible exports (Taghdisi et al. 2015). In fact, tourism in today's world is considered as an industry that needs special equipment and requires research and development to grow like all other industries (Kazemi 2010). In fact, tourism in many countries of the world is one of the most complex activities of human beings and as a multifaceted activity has many positive effects and functions including job creation, money making, currency attracting and strengthening the infrastructure, and so on (Ghaderi et al. 2011). Hence, Qayen is one of the cities with diverse potential and climate conditions for attracting domestic and foreign tourists, but this city still has not been able to lead to the growth of the tourism industry as well as a source of income generation for individuals. The existence of tourist attractions in the historical, cultural, and natural areas of Qayen city can provide the areas of economic growth of economic, environmental, and social parts and urban well-being in the city and it can be proposed as an important tourist attraction in South Khorasan province and at macro and national levels. However, the existing statistics reflects the weakness of the social and urban economy of the city. Therefore, the present research attempts to identify the key factors and main drivers involved in the development of tourism in Qayen, and then its main elements and factors. By designing possible scenarios in the future, a flexible planning policy and planning framework proportional to the conditions of the region and growth and development of the tourism industry in Cayen is offered. ISSN (Print) : 2319-8613 ISSN (Online) : 0975-4024 Mohammad Rahim Rahnama et al. / International Journal of Engineering and Technology (IJET) DOI: 10.21817/ijet/2020/v12i2/201202124 Vol 12 No 2 Mar-Apr 2020 351