The Cryosphere Discuss., 8, C1569–C1572, 2014
www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/8/C1569/2014/
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribute 3.0 License.
Open Access
The Cryosphere
Discussions
Interactive comment on “What glaciers are telling
us about Earth’s changing climate” by W.
Tangborn and M. Mosteller
R. J. Braithwaite
roger.braithwaite@manchester.ac.uk
Received and published: 19 August 2014
This is a very interesting paper. It is also very timely as many of us are concerned about
the possible impacts of increased glacier melt. However, too little information is given
on the PTAA model and the R-square values for six glaciers in Table 1 are not very
convincing. I am especially concerned that no references are given to other glacier-
climate modelling studies except for those by Dr Tangborn. Is the PTAA approach
different from others? Is it better?
A number of workers have followed the lead of J. Oerlemans in calibrating glacier-
climate models against some observed mass balance data (“tuning”) and then per-
turbing the model by changing one or more of the model inputs to simulate the effects
of climate change (“tweaking”). The models include energy balance and temperature
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index models and have been tuned against observed mass balance as a function of
altitude or as a time series. Tweaking has involved changing year-round tempera-
ture, summer temperature or annual precipitation in the model to simulate the effect
of changing climate. The results for such sensitivity experiments suggest that glaciers
in dry-continental environments (for example the High Arctic) have relatively low mass
balance sensitivity to temperature change while glaciers in wet-maritime environments
(coastal North America, Scandinavia and New Zealand) have relatively high mass bal-
ance sensitivity. Precipitation increases of 30-40% would be needed to offset the effect
of a 1 K increase in temperature. For any revision of this discussion paper, the au-
thors should compare and contrast their approach and results with those of Oerlemans
and Hoogendoorn (1989), Oerlemans and Fortuin (1992), Laumann and Reeh (1993),
Jóhannesson,et al. (1995), Jóhannesson (1997), Vallon et al. (1998), Oerlemans and
Reichert (2000), Braithwaite and Zhang (1999 and 2000), Kuhn (2000), Braithwaite et
al (2003), de Woul and Hock (2005), Braithwaite and Raper (2007), Shea et al. (2009),
Anderson et al. (2010), Wu et al. (2011) and Rasmussen (2013) to mention just a few.
The above mass balance studies are based on models because we want to make
future projections of increased melting before it happens. Although such models are
tuned against observed mass balance data, we still need to verify the mass balance
sensitivities that we get from the models. Braithwaite et al. (2013) look at recent mass
balance variations in the Alps and claim they are consistent with earlier projections
from models. We need much more of this kind of verification!
References
Anderson, B., A. MacKintosh, D. Stumm, L. George, T. Kerr, A. Winter-Billington and S.
Fitzsimons. Climate sensitivity of a high-precipitation glacier in New Zealand. Journal
of Glaciology 56, 195, 114-128, 2010.
Braithwaite, R. J. and S. C. B. Raper. Glaciological conditions in seven contrasting
regions estimated with the degree-day model. Annals of Glaciology 46, 297-302, 2007.
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