Academic Journal of Applied Mathematical Sciences ISSN(e): 2415-2188, ISSN(p): 2415-5225 Vol. 6, Issue. 4, pp: 32-40, 2020 URL: https://arpgweb.com/journal/journal/17 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32861/ajams.64.32.40 Academic Research Publishing Group 32 Original Research Open Access Predicting COVID-19 Cases Using Some Statistical Models: An Application to the Cases Reported in China Italy and USA Mostafa Salaheldin Abdelsalam Abotaleb Sigma Academic building, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia Email: mabonazel@hotmail.com Article History Received: March 27, 2020 Revised: April 20, 2020 Accepted: April 25, 2020 Published: April 28, 2020 Copyright © 2020 ARPG & Author This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 Abstract Today, the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a global epidemic that spreads rapidly among individuals in most countries around the world and, therefore, becomes the greatest worldwide threat. The aim of this study is to find the best predictive models for the confirmation of daily situations in countries with a large number of confirmed cases. The study was conducted on the countries that recorded the highest infection rate, namely China, Italy and the United States of America. The second goal is using predictive models to get more prepared in terms of health care systems. In this study, predictions were made through statistical prediction models using the ARIMA and exponential growth model. The results indicate that the exponential growth model is better than ARIMA models for forecasting the COVID-19 cases. Keywords: ARIMA model; Box-Jenkins approach; Coronavirus; Forecasting; Holt’s linear trend. 1. Introduction The World Health Organization has declared COVID-19 as universal epidemic. All countries should take the necessary measures to limit the spread of the virus, on the basis of the analysis and modeling of data issued by the World Health Organization. This research recommends that all countries of the world should impose quarantine including restrictions on travel and public gatherings, leading to the closure of schools, universities and workplaces in order to achieve (“social divergence”) in the short term. With limited intensive care units and increasingly growing deaths, the failure of intensive care system is highly probable. This will affect a much larger proportion of the world's population including youth in the workforce who may be asymptomatic but are forced to work from home and rationalize expenditures. The number of affected people in the world will increase dramatically in the next four weeks. This study aims at finding the best predictive models for confirmed daily cases in China, Italy and the United States of America. The second aim of the study is to reach clear expectation of cases with these models in order to obtain more preparedness in health care systems in each of these countries and in countries where the disease begins to spread. This virus is considered a modified Corona virus, or what is called Covid-19, one that infects the respiratory system of humans and animals, and causes infection. Pneumonia is idiopathic pneumonia associated with individuals working in the Huanan seafood market where live animals are sold. At the end of January 2020, nearly 75,755 people were confirmed in China and among the first 41 patients were found to be linked to the Huanan seafood market in the "Huan market" in Wuhan, China, confirmed the first death of the virus on January 9, 2020. It is estimated that there is a large number of people infected with this virus, but it has not been revealed until it is spread beyond the borders of China. The first case recorded in one family was in Vietnam through the transmission of the virus from father to son, but the first outbreak of the virus was on January 22 in Germany where infection was made by infected Chinese people in the state of Bavaria. To control the spread of this virus, China banned the movement of 57 million people in Wuhan and 15 surrounding cities The tourist sites were closed, celebrations of the Chinese New Year were cancelled to avoid the transmission of the virus. Here, we must mention that infection can be transmitted through mucus and saliva droplets that come out of the mouth or nose scattered from the infected person and spread on the surfaces. Moreover, direct infection can occur by inhaling the breath that comes out of an infected person. There are some studies that work on discovering the causes that lead to the transmission of the infection among individuals including the incubation period for the disease which is five or more days as per the World Health Organization (WHO) reports so far. The WHO has decided that antibiotics do not eliminate viruses, but they eliminate graphical infections, and, therefore, antibiotics should not be used in the prevention or treatment of this virus. Antibiotics shall be used according to the doctor’s direct instructions to treat bacterial infections. Until now there is no specific vaccine or drug. Therefore, people receive care to relieve symptoms, and although there are some medications and antibiotics that reduce the severity of the symptoms of this virus, there is no current treatment to prevent the virus. Trials are now underway to