www.sciedupress.com/jbei Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics 2018, Vol. 4, No. 2 ORIGINAL ARTICLES Rotavirus diarrhea – An analysis through epidemic modeling Ojaswita Chaturvedi *1 , Edward Lungu 2 , Mandu Jeffrey 3 , Shedden Masupe 4 1 Udarta Marketing Pvt Ltd, Founder, Director-Research and Development, Pune, India 2 Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Gaborone, Botswana 3 Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana 4 Botswana Institute of Technology Research and Innovation, Gaborone, Botswana Received: August 21, 2016 Accepted: December 28, 2018 Online Published: December 30, 2018 DOI: 10.5430/jbei.v4n2p21 URL: https://doi.org/10.5430/jbei.v4n2p21 ABSTRACT Modelling an infectious disease like diarrhea improves the understanding of the transmission and helps in preventing it. Based on the pathogenesis, this research creates a continuous mathematical model for diarrhea (forming an SIRS system) caused by the virus rotavirus. Basic calculations including the basic reproduction number (R0) and disease-free state are successfully completed for the described system. Results show that if the basic reproduction number is kept below 1 (i.e. R0 < 1), there will be no epidemic. This mathematical model has been simulated using assumed values of parameters to test its fidelity. In order to establish the model in a functioning form, the Routh Hurwitz method has been used for the stability analysis. Model fidelity has been made stronger by conducting the sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation too. This model is very useful and has been integrated to form utilizable systems which function as a predictive system to assist in prevention of further infections of rotavirus causing diarrhea. Key Words: Modeling, Epidemics, Mathematical mmodeling, Diarrhea, Rotavirus, Routh Hurwitz analysis, Sensitivity analsysis, Parameter estimation 1. I NTRODUCTION Human population at-large, is continuously affected by the threats presented by infectious diseases. The World Health Organisation (WHO) records that 43% of the total global dis- ease burden is caused by infectious disease. [1] Furthermore, it was established in 2008 that out of all deaths, 16% was due to infectious diseases. [2] Generally, a closed population is exposed to Infectious disease through a carrier of infectious agents. A cariier can differ, varying from a patient or any infected person to any external vector like water, body fluids or air. Uncontrolled transmissions of such diseases results in an epidemic. Definition of an epidemic is given as a abrupt and sharp increment in the number of cases within a closed population. [3] An increase in the number of cases allows transmission of the disease to be more instantaneous and in this way it increases the mortality rate of the population. As it is essential to life, water related diseases form a sig- nificant portion of infectious diseases. One of the most pop- ular diseases that is transmitted through water is diarrhea. Alarming global health statistics are produced by the disease reaching up to 1.7 billion cases annually as per WHO records. Pneumonia topping the list among causes of child mortality, * Correspondence: Ojaswita Chaturvedi; Email: krishnaa.chaturvedi@gmail.com; Address: Udarta Marketing Pvt Ltd Founder, Director - Research and Development Pune, India. Published by Sciedu Press 21