DOI : 10.14738/tmlai.72.6333 Publication Date: 18 th April, 2019 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/tmlai.72.6333 Volume 7 No 2 Analysis on Reported Cases of HIV at Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado-Ekiti, South-Western Nigeria Kayode S. O. Ibikunle and Isaac O. Ajao Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The Federal Polytechnic, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria isaacoluwaseyiajao@gmail.com ABSTRACT The nation Nigeria has been ranked the second among the nations of world with largest population of people with HIV. This information does not mean that every region and state in the country is not safe. Ekiti, a state in the south western part of the country has the lowest rate, which this study aims at establishing scientifically. Considering certain risk factors, such as age, gender and the local government area of the individuals tested, it is found out that none of the factors is significantly contributing to having or not having HIV in the state at 5% of significance. The parameter estimates obtained using the binary logistic regression are very low, the lack of fit test and the model test show that the factors are not good for modelling HIV cases in Ekiti state, thereby corroborating the fact that the state has lowest rate in Nigeria. Keyword: HIV, Ekiti state, Nigeria, logistic regression 1 Introduction Nigeria has the second largest HIV epidemic in the world (National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), 2017). Although HIV prevalence among adults is much less (2.8%) than other sub-Saharan African countries such as South Africa (18.8%) and Zambia (11.5%), the size of Nigeria's population means 3.1 million people were living with HIV in 2017 (United Nations Joint Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), 2018) It is estimated that around two-thirds of new HIV infections in West and Central Africa in 2017 occurred in Nigeria. Together with South Africa and Uganda, the country accounts for around half of all new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa every year (UNAIDS, 2017). This is despite achieving a 5% reduction in new infections between 2010 and 2017 (UNAIDS, 2018). Unprotected heterosexual sex accounts for 80% of new HIV infections in Nigeria, with the majority of remaining HIV infections occurring in key affected populations such as sex workers (NACA, 2015). Six states in Nigeria account for 41% of people living with HIV, including Kaduna, Akwa-Ibom, Benue, Lagos, Oyo, and Kano (NACA, 2017). HIV prevalence is highest in Nigeria’s southern states (known as the South South Zone), and stands at 5.5%. It is lowest in the southeast (the South East Zone) where there is a prevalence of 1.8%. There are higher rates of HIV in rural areas (4%) than in urban ones (3%) (NACA, 2015) Approximately 150,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in Nigeria in 2017 (UNAIDS, 2018). Since 2005, the reduction in the number of annual AIDS-related deaths has been minimal, indicative of the fact that only 33% of those with a positive diagnosis in Nigeria are accessing antiretroviral treatment (ART) (UNAIDS, 2018). According to the HIV/AIDS prevalence ranking by states published by National Agency for the Control of Aids (NACA) Ekiti,