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Academy of Contemporary Research Journal
V II (IV), 175-181, ISSN: 2305-865X
© Resource Mentors (Pvt) ltd (Publisher)
Received: June 2013
Revised: September 2013
Accepted: October 2013
175
Social Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock
Prices, a Case on SAARC Economies
Ijaz Hussain Bokhari
bokhari.ijaz@gmail.com
Argosy University Chicago, USA
Abstract
The dynamic linkage between exchange rate and stock prices has been subjected to extensive research for over a
decade and attracted considerable attention from researchers worldwide during the crisis of 1997-98, global financial
crises 2000-01 and 2007. The issue is also important from the viewpoint of recent large cross-border movement of
funds. In global the issue is also gaining importance in the liberalization era. With this background, the present study
will examine the causal relationship between returns in stock market indices and currency exchange rates in
developed and developing economies.
Introduction
The global financial system is undergoing the process of
gaining back its strength from the deepest financial collapse
in the post- World War II era. The major global financial
recessions were triggered at key industrialized and
developed economies in association of similar factors
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) that concurred with the
glaciating of integrated financial markets and also caused
the collapse of international trade flows. However all
significant financial crises, Argentina, 1994 Latin America,
1994 East Asian, 1997, Turkey, 2001 and global level
financial crises 2000-01 and 2007 again imbues its
destructive footprints on the face of global level integrated
economies through one common phenomena that
synchronized effects on currencies and stock prices. These
concurrent effects have given the birth to new phenomena
that raised key questions; which one of them is the leading
indicator that influences the others to move? Theoretically,
researchers fail to document sound conclusion on the
direction and behavioral association between exchange rate
movements and stock market indices. Literature has
documented mix conclusions regarding the causal
relationship between stock market indices and currency
markets exchange rates. Dynamic linkage between
currency exchange rates and stock market returns is the
primary area of interest under this research study.
Johansen’s Co-integration and Granger Causality tests will
be applied in the study to explore the direction of causality
between currency exchange rate markets and stock market
returns of sample economies. Results will facilitate us in
documenting the behavior and nature of currency exchange
rates and the stock market indices in the sample economies
of SAARC countries; these countries include: Pakistan,
Bangladesh, India, Sri-Lanka and Nepal.
Currency exchange rates of these economies have attained
less than due attention from the practical and academic
researchers to investigate possible factors causing the
exchange rates to move in under developing economies.
While the developing economies are more exposed to
global disturbances, these economies might not be showing
signs of stable currency exchange rates. Consequently,
currency exchange rates of these economies frequently
diverge from parity conditions. Hence, a greater economic
stability in developing economies can only be made
possible through better understanding of factors which
cause exchange rate movements.
Practical Objectives:
Understanding the dynamic linkages between currency
exchange rates and stock markets, this understanding will
also facilitate the national as well as multinational
organizations to manage their foreign exchange exposure?
Portfolio investors can use this information into order
hedge or speculate their returns on foreign investments.
Regulatory authorities can ensure the pre-cautionary
measures to save their markets from financial crises.
Theoretical Objectives:
To determine the nature of causal relationship between
stock market indices and currency markets exchange rates
of SAARC Economies. To find the common determinants
of nominal exchange rates of sample economies. To
determine the predictive capacity of different exchange rate
models based on economic fundamentals and their
comparison with Chartism based models.