GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites Year XIV, vol. 36, no. 2spl, 2021, p.708-714 ISSN 2065-1198, E-ISSN 2065-0817 DOI 10.30892/gtg.362spl19-701 http://gtg.webhost.uoradea.ro/ ACCRUED FORECASTING ON TOURIST’S ARRIVAL IN BANGLADESH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN * Universiti Sains Malaysia, School of Mathematical Sciences, Penang, Malaysia. Mawlana Bashani Science and Technology University, Department of Statistics, Tangail, Bangladesh, e-mail: m300cht@gmail.com Mohd Tahir ISMAIL Universiti Sains Malaysia, School of Mathematical Sciences, Penang, Malaysia, e-mail: m.tahir@usm.my Mosab I. TABASH Al Ain University, College of Business, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, e-mail: mosab.tabash@aau.ac.ae Ahmed ABOUSAMAK Al Ain University, College of Business, United Arab Emirates and Suez Canal University, Egypt, e-mail: Ahmed.AbouSamak@aau.ac.ae Citation: Hossen, S.M., Ismail, T.M., Tabash, M.I,, & Abousamak, A. (2021). ACCRUED FORECASTING ON TOURIST’S ARRIVAL IN BANGLADESH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites, 36(2spl), 708–714. https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.362spl19-701 Abstract : Forecasting of potential tourists’ appearance could assume a critical role in the tourism industry, arranging at all levels i n both the private and public sectors. In this study our aim to build an econometric model to forecast worldwide visitor streams to Bangladesh. For this purpose, the present investigation focuses on univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling. Model choice criteria were Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Squared Error (RMSE). As per descriptive statistics, the mean appearances were 207012 and will be 656522 (application) every year. Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Squared Deviation likewise concurred with MAPE, MAE, and MSE. The result reveals that for sustainable development the SARIMA model is the reasonable model for forecasting universal visitor appearances in Bangladesh. Key words: forecasting; tourist arrival; economic impacts; sustainable development; SARIMA model * * * * * * INTRODUCTION In the 21st century, the tourism industry has gotten one of the significant and quickest developing areas on the planet (Hassani et al., 2017). It is an assortment of exercises, services, and industries, including the business of food and beverage, transportation, marketing, entertaining, and other accommodation services accommodated people or gatherings (Konarasinghe, 2016). The economic impacts of tourism development are noticeable both in the local and global aspects of the financial sphere. Residents’ advantage by the tourism industry over expanded industrial action, upgrade of recreational offices, the revival of local cultures, the opening of eateries, and interests in environmental infrastructure. Besides this, tourist appearances can influence residents’ prosperity through genuine experiences (Ivlevs, 2017). The development of the tourism industry business, for the most part, relies upon the growth in the appearances of both local and foreign tourists (Mishra et al., 2018). Their expenditure plays a vital role in the tourism industry and is treated as the foundation of the economic impacts (Smolčić Jurdana and Soldić Frl eta, 2017). Revenue from the tourism industry that expands the national income, likewise, fills in as the source of tax revenue for worldwide governments (Tiwari et al., 2018). A range of recreational items motivates tourists, escape from daily life, experience new things, and expand new social relationships (Volchek et al., 2019). Numerous investigations found that individual safety and destination image are additionally the significant determinants of destination decision for guests (Hamadeh and Bassil, 2017). A recent study revealed that tourists are strongly motivated by cultural reasons as well as very interested in realistic features (de Simone et al., 2018). For productive tourism industry businesses, it is critical to react quickly to up and coming interest, in this manner, making constrained resources accessible for co-inventive assistance creation forms. Forecasting on tourism demand can stipulate vital information for successive planning and policymaking (Sun et al., 2019). Therefore, the arrival of tourists prediction is not only essential for business planning, growth strategies, and operations of travel and tourism companies but in measuring and expecting the region's overall economic activity (Bangwayo-Skeete and Skeete, 2015). Moreover, projections of tourist appearances help governments informing medium and long-haul procedures for local and regional tourism industry improvement, planning, and sustainability (Höpken et al., 2018). An acute requirement is needed for the travel industry for minimizing risk, to adjust, and gain by the new opportunity. Therefore, it ought to think about business and destination adaptation of the travel industry that needs to go far and wide emanation modeling and forecasting and mitigation strategies. * Corresponding author