Vol.:(0123456789) 1 3
Regional Environmental Change (2022) 22:42
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01888-1
REVIEW
The human dimensions of the climate risk and armed confict nexus:
a review article
Leanna Augsten
1
· Karine Gagné
1
· Yvonne Su
2
Received: 13 April 2021 / Accepted: 4 January 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022
Abstract
The literature that examines the nexus of climate risk and armed confict tends to be based on quantitative datasets and
focuses on the causal relationship between the two issues. A limited number of studies consider the human dimensions of this
nexus, but this literature has not been the subject of a synthesis. This article reviews the research examining the climate risk
and armed confict nexus, with specifc emphasis on feld studies and qualitative research. It aims to synthesize key fndings
emerging from the literature in order to shed light on the human dimensions of this nexus. Our analysis focuses on two broad
themes: exposure and response. Exposure varies according to regional particularities and across locations while gender and
weak political institutions are signifcant determinants in further increasing vulnerability. Response to the experience of the
climate risk and armed confict nexus consists primarily of various forms of migration. We also draw attention to specifc
directions for future research eforts to better understand the human dimensions of the climate-confict nexus. This includes
methodological considerations, attention to the anticipated aggravation of geopolitical realities through climate risk, and the
identifcation of countries having a high climate risk index, and which are experiencing ongoing armed confict.
Keywords Climate risk · Armed confict · Exposure · Coping mechanisms · Vulnerability · Qualitative research
Introduction
During the summer of 2020, violent clashes took place
between soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army
and the Indian Army at the Line of Actual Control, the
demarcation line between China and India. The event, which
made the headlines, highlighted the micro dimensions of
warfare at this contested Himalayan border and entertained
speculations about the question of a “New Cold War” era
between the USA and China (Gettleman et al. 2020; Shapoo
2020). For the nomads on the Changtang plateau on the
Indian side of the border, these regional and perhaps global
geopolitical issues have concrete implications and were a
painful reminder that this part of the Tibetan plateau, which
has long sustained their unique subsistence, is at the heart of
one of the major border conficts in Asia. The geostrategic
nature of their land has, since the Sino-India war, impacted
their subsistence, as they have to cope with land-grabbing,
the reduction of pasture areas, and disturbances to their
livestock’s grazing cycles. As the viability of their primary
mode of subsistence is challenged by an enduring geopoliti-
cal confict, many are relocating to towns and abandoning
their ways of life (Dollfus 2013; Uprety 2020). This situa-
tion is also exacerbated by the threat of climate change, the
impact of which has been felt in the land of the nomads in
recent years, with changing snowfall and rainfall patterns
(Mukherjee 2019).
Further south in Asia, in the region of Mindanao in the
Philippines, farmers have been living amid enduring con-
flicts between government troops and Moro Separatist
Groups since the 1960s and experiencing similar forms of
insecurity. While the situation has generated population dis-
placement, the combined efect of recurrent droughts has
Communicated by James D. Ford.
* Karine Gagné
gagnek@uoguelph.ca
Leanna Augsten
augstenl@uoguelph.ca
Yvonne Su
yvonnesu@yorku.ca
1
Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University
of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
2
Department of Equity Studies, York University, Toronto, ON,
Canada