Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Research in Transportation Business & Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rtbm Scenario analysis of Brazilian soybean exports via discrete event simulation applied to soybean transportation: The case of Mato Grosso State Harlenn dos Santos Lopes, Renato da Silva Lima ⁎ , Fabiano Leal, Aline de Carvalho Nelson Federal University of Itajuba (UNIFEI), Industrial Engineering and Management Institute (IEPG), Ave. BPS 1303 – Pinheirinho, Itajuba, MG 37500-903, Brazil ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Soybeans Agribusiness Modeling Discrete-event simulation Logistics Transportation ABSTRACT In 2015, Brazil exported 54.32 million metric tons of soybeans, which represents 40.2% of the total world ex- ports. Even with lower production costs, Brazil's competitive advantages are diminished due to difficulties with product distribution caused by problems in the logistical network. The objective of this study is to aid in strategic transport decision-making via a discrete event simulation project. The object of study is the logistical export system for soybeans for the state of Mato Grosso, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans in Brazil. The decision-making process is based on route costs and the availability of ports. Four different scenarios were simulated for the export system. At the end of the simulations performed for three months, and beyond simply comparing total costs, the results indicate that there is a need for the development and expansion of, primarily the Port of Vitória and the ports in the north of Brazil, as well as the multimodal logistics flow to these op- erational ports. 1. Introduction In recent years, few countries have grown as much as Brazil in in- ternational agribusiness trade. The country is now a world leader in the production and export of various agricultural products. Since 2013, Brazil has been the largest soybean exporter (CONAB, 2014). In 2015, Brazil exported 54.32 million metric tons (MT) of soybeans, an amount 19.1% higher than the 45.6 million metric tons exported in the previous year, corresponding to 40.2% of the soybeans exported worldwide (ALICEWEB, 2017; ANEC, 2015). In 2016, Brazil is expected to export 55.3 million metric tons of soybeans, reinforcing its position as the world leader in soybean exports (ABIOVE, 2016). Soy is the leading agribusiness commodity in Brazil (Dall'agnol, Roessing, Lazzarotto, Hirakuri, & Oliveira, 2007; Hirakuri, 2013). Soy and soy derivative exports account for approximately 11% of the total value of Brazilian exports (ABIOVE, 2016). The growth in this sector has had a significant impact on the business environment in Brazil. The force of the soy supply chain creates a situation in which Brazil can act as a geopolitical and geo economic player, with the capacity to influ- ence global commodities markets (Hirakuri & Lazzarotto, 2014). In terms of production costs, Brazil has comparative advantages pertaining to soy production in relation to its international competitors, these advantages being territorial, climatic, and technological in nature (Lopes, Lima, & Ferreira, 2016; Salin, 2016). However, these ad- vantages are reduced when products enter the inefficient logistics flow found in Brazil (Dubke & Pizzolato, 2011; Friend & Lima, 2011). Transportation and storage inefficiencies represent the main problems for agribusiness, which significantly affect Brazil's international com- petitiveness (Branco & Caixeta-Filho, 2011; Enomoto & Lima, 2007; Fioroni et al., 2015; Kussano & Batalha, 2012). Since soy is a commodity priced in the international market, it is not possible to control its sale price, with the only controls available being operational and management costs. Furthermore, Brazilian soybean plantations are located in the inland portions of the country which creates bigger challenges for product distribution logistics country (Fioroni et al., 2015; Lopes et al., 2016). The state of Mato Grosso is no exception to the rule. Located in the Midwest, Mato Grosso is the largest producer and exporter of Brazilian soybeans, representing approxi- mately 30% of national production, and has no seaports within a 900 km radius (Lopes et al., 2016). Currently, the main destinations for soybeans from this state are the ports of Santos, in the state of São Paulo, and Paranaguá, in Paraná (ALICEWEB, 2017). These ports are also the main destinations for Brazilian soybeans and, despite having better infrastructure among national ports, they are saturated in terms of productivity and cannot keep up with the growth of export. Orga- nizations involved with soybean logistics have been developed and gradually implemented in order to make use of other ports around the country. However, public and private investments are necessary to improve these logistics. The development of transportation axes and infrastructure involve http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.09.002 Received 1 February 2017; Received in revised form 11 August 2017; Accepted 12 September 2017 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: harlenn@ufpa.br (H.d.S. Lopes), rslima@unifei.edu.br (R.d.S. Lima), fleal@unifei.du.br (F. Leal). Research in Transportation Business & Management xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx 2210-5395/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Please cite this article as: Dos Santos Lopes, H., Research in Transportation Business & Management (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.09.002