59 © 2020 by the authors; licensee Asian Online Journal Publishing Group Economy Vol. 7, No. 1, 59-68, 2020 ISSN(E) 2313-8181/ ISSN(P) 2518-0118 DOI: 10.20448/journal.502.2020.71.59.68 © 2020 by the authors; licensee Asian Online Journal Publishing Group An Analysis of the Relationship among Economic Growth, External Debt and Exports in India (1970-2018) Smita Nath Associate Professor in Economics, Scottish Church College (affiliated to the University of Calcutta), Kolkata, India. Abstract This paper attempts to examine the relationship among debt servicing, exports and GDP for India during 1970 – 2018 using co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. In the bi-variate model with constant trend specification GDP and exports seem to have no long-term relationship. However, change in GDP Granger causes change in exports. For the restricted constant trend specification, in the short run, GDP affects exports positively and significantly. GDP and debt services seem to have a positive and significant long-term relationship in the bivariate model. The tri-variate model including GDP, Exports and debt service reveals a long term relationship among the variables where both exports and debt services affect GDP positively and significantly. GDP, exports and debt stocks do not have any long term relationship with constant trend specification, but change in GDP is found to Granger cause change in exports. For the restricted constant trend specification, however, there seems to be a long term relationship among them. In the short run GDP affects exports positively and significantly. In general, results indicate a positive and significant impact of GDP on exports. A significant positive long run impact of external debt on economic growth is also observed when debt service is the indicator of external debt. The short run impacts of external debt in terms of both debt servicing and debt stocks, however, produce diverse and insignificant results. Keywords: External debt, Economic growth, Exports, Co-integration, Granger-causality. JEL Classification: F34; 047. Citation | Smita Nath (2020). An Analysis of the Relationship among Economic Growth, External Debt and Exports in India (1970-2018). Economy, 7(1): 59-68. History: Received: 26 March 2020 Revised: 28 April 2020 Accepted: 4 June 2020 Published: 2 July 2020 Licensed: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License Publisher: Asian Online Journal Publishing Group Funding: This study received no specific financial support. Competing Interests: The author declares that there are no conflicts of interests regarding the publication of this paper. Transparency: The author confirms that the manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account of the study was reported; that no vital features of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned have been explained. Ethical: This study follows all ethical practices during writing. Contents 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 2. A Brief Survey of the Literature ................................................................................................................................................... 60 3. Data and Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................... 62 4. Trends in GDP, Exports and Various indicators of External Debt in India ....................................................................... 62 5. Relationship among External Debt, Exports and Economic Growth ................................................................................... 63 6. Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................................................................................................... 66 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 67