Contents lists available at ScienceDirect The Electricity Journal journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tej The electrification accelerator: Understanding the implications of autonomous vehicles for electric utilities Jürgen Weiss a, ⁎ , Ryan Hledik b , Roger Lueken c , Tony Lee a , Will Gorman d a The Brattle Group, One Beacon Street, Suite 2600, Boston, MA, 02108, USA b The Brattle Group, 8th Floor Aldermary House, 10-15 Queen Street, London, EC4N 1TX, United Kingdom c The Brattle Group, 1800 M Street NW, Suite 700 North, Washington DC, 20036, USA d Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, USA ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Electrification Electric vehicle Autonomous vehicle Electric utility Rate design Regulation ABSTRACT The intersection of autonomous vehicles, ride sharing and transportation electrification could have significant implications for electric utilities. This paper analyses how the development of shared autonomous electric ve- hicles may make electrified transportation more likely and why this may lead to a more rapid than expected shift in the current transportation paradigm. We also discuss how these trends may affect utilities and suggest what they can do to prepare for the transition. 1. Introduction Rapid advancements in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, combined with the growth of ride hailing and vehicle sharing, are creating the possibility of a radical transformation of transportation. In parallel, progress in the development of electric transportation is causing electric utility companies to analyze how their business models may need to change to accommodate electric vehicles (EVs). To date, utility studies have tended to focus on a scenario of relatively gradual adoption of EVs replacing individually owned non-electric vehicles. Those studies have not fully considered the impact that automation and ride/vehicle sharing might have on the speed of electrification of transportation and the associated opportunities and challenges for electric utilities. This article focuses on the intersection of autonomous vehicles, ride sharing/ride hailing, and electric vehicles and the implication these phenomena may have for the utility business model. We begin by briefly introducing AV technologies and ride/vehicle sharing concepts and discussing how the development of shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) may make electrified transportation more likely. We then explain why this may lead to a more rapid than expected shift in the current transportation paradigm. We conclude with a discussion of how these trends may affect utilities and suggest what they can do to prepare for the transition. 1 2. Autonomous vehicles and the sharing economy Recent years have seen massive investments in autonomous driving technology by automobile manufacturers, ride sharing software com- panies, and technology companies. Autonomous vehicles are being promoted as a way to increase safety, driver comfort, and vehicle ef- ficiency. The expected benefits include reduced accident and fatality rates, reduced traffic congestion, expanded access of mobility to cur- rently underserved populations, and reduced space use in urban areas. 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2017.11.009 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: jurgen.weiss@brattle.com (J. Weiss), ryan.hledik@brattle.com (R. Hledik), roger.lueken@brattle.com (R. Lueken), tony.lee@brattle.com (T. Lee), gorman_will@berkeley.edu (W. Gorman). 1 This short paper does not discuss the benefits of electric transportation for utilities and in terms of reduced GHG emissions. For a discussion of these issues, see Jurgen Weiss, Ryan Hledik, Michael Hagerty, and Will Gorman, Electrification -Emerging Opportunities for Utility Growth, January 2017. Available at: http://www.brattle.com/system/news/pdfs/000/ 001/174/original/Electrification_Whitepaper_Final_Single_Pages.pdf 2 Anderson et al. Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers, RAND Corporation, 2016. The Electricity Journal 30 (2017) 50–57 1040-6190/ © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. T