Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online) Vol.11, No.18, 2020 23 Impacts of COVID-19 on Australian Higher Education Export-A Discussion Dr Ranajit Kumar Bairagi Asia Pacific International College, Melbourne Campus, 399 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne 3000, Australia E-mail: ranajit.bairagi@apicollege.edu.au Abstract Based on the desktop method, this study reviews and discusses the predicted impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on Australian higher education export which is the largest service-based export sector and the fourth largest export sector in terms of value addition. The review reports that the COVID pandemic may impact the number of international students to decline by 50% in 2020-2021 academic year, hitting most the Go8 research universities and least the non-university accredited colleges and institutions. The discussion explores few optimistic policy options supporting the recovery and sustainable growth for the sector. Keywords: Coronavirus, Australian higher education, export, impact, policy. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-18-03 Publication date:September 30 th 2020 1. Introduction The novel COVID-19 standing for COrona VIrus Disease outbroken ever first in December 2019 in Wuhan, a provincial capital city of China, is one of the number of viruses which cause costly externalities to society through fatal threat to human health and death. Other than death, the pathogenic spreading of viruses causes multifaceted adverse spillover effects on society and macroeconomies, for example, the COVID-19 has already adversely impacted international trade, tourism, travel, energy and finance sectors through triggering a selloff panic in the capital markets worldwide (Herron and Hajric, 2020). Macroeconomic activities and evolving and spreading of viruses are mutually influenced because activities during booms (Adda, 2016) require and lead more traveling and interpersonal contacts whereas recessions (Ruhm, 2005; Evans and Moore, 2012) adversely change health behavior. This connotation is aligned with the prediction of Adda (2016) that the trades of livestock across countries as well as closer contact of mankind and wild animals in Asia and Africa may trigger the evolution and transmission of new viruses. Once a virus evolved, it needs to be controlled or contained until the availability of effective vaccination. The controlling can be achieved through school closure (Adda, 2016), travel ban, and social distancing (Chang et al., 2020), among others. Considering the public health emergency, WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic outbreak on 11 March 2020 (Chang et al., 2020). This pandemic is forecasted to plummet the world economy by 7.6% in 2020 before climbing back 2.8% in 2021 and it may not comeback in 2019-Q4 level for at least two years (OECD, June 2020). The World Bank June 2020 outlook on global economic prospects forecasts that the global GDP growth could shrink from 5.2% (optimistic) despite the extraordinary fiscal and monetary efforts by the governments to 8% (downside scenario) in 2020 (Worldbank, June, 2020). The continuation of each additional month of crisis may cost 2.5%-3% of global GDP with more adverse effect on countries reliant more on foreign trade and service export (hospitality, tourism and education) (Fernandes, 2020). The increasing number of lockdown days, monetary policy decisions and international travel restrictions have already severely affected the level of economic activities and the major stock market indices across the world (Ozili and Arun, 2020). These have also already adversely impacted the higher education sector globally and particularly in major developed countries through income evaporation from shutting down of accommodation, catering, conference, and academic service (Burki, 2020). The Australian higher education sector is noteworthy among the developed economies because it is Australia’s largest service-based export sector (MOE, 2019) and the fourth largest export item. This sector contributed $40.3 billion and supported more than 250,000 jobs in 2019 (ABS, 2019). International students regard Australia as the third most popular education destination in the world (UNESCO, 2019) where students from 191 countries come to pursue their studies in higher education, VET, schools, English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) and Non-award sectors. In 2019, its total enrolled international students increased by 9% over 2018 while it is 11% in the higher education sector which attracts 46.2% of total international students (DESE, 2019). Considering the economic significance of Australian education sector, this study specifically reviews and discusses the prospective effect of COVID-19 pandemic on its higher education sector which exports the largest portion of the education services. This study is significant and timely because it explores few policy options which help the policymakers to compete in the global student market by formulating and supporting the time demand policies. The rest of the study proceeds by exploring the prospective impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Australian Higher Education Export, a discussion on potential policy options for sustainable recovery and growth.