Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers Richard Javad Heydarian * The triangular relations among three states—the Philippines, the United States, and the People’s Republic of China—are governed by structural balance of power factors, “pragmatic opportunism” on the part of the superpowers, and the threat and opportunity perceptions of individual Philippine administrations. Recent years have seen Manila dramatically oscillating between the extremes of engagement and deterrence toward China, and dependence on, and independence from, the United States. In particular, while the Benigno Aquino III administration (2010–2016) adopted soft counterbalancing against China and heavily relied on American military support, the succeeding Rodrigo Duterte administration, in contrast, distanced itself from America in favor of deeper engagement with China. The seemingly erratic swings in the pendulum of Manila’s foreign policy is a telltale sign of the dilemma of small power politics as well as the tempestuous nature of Philippine domestic politics. Key words: independent foreign policy, Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, South China Sea, triangular relations 菲律宾、美国和中国的三角关系由三个方面组成的结构平衡所控制, 它们分别是实力因 素、超级大国的‘实用性机会主义’（pragmatic opportunism）、以及菲律宾政府对威胁和 机会的感知。最近几年马尼拉对中国和美国的态度都发生了戏剧性变化, 对前者的态度在 接触（engagement）和威慑（deterrence）之间摇摆, 对后者则是一时依赖, 一时独立。 特别的是, 尽管贝尼格诺 Á 阿基诺三世（Benigno Aquino III）政府在2010-2016年间对中国 采取软平衡（soft counter-balancing）政策, 严重依赖美国的军事支持, 但继任总统罗德里 戈 Á 杜特尔特（Rodrigo Duterte）政府却与美国保持距离, 转而对中国进行深入接触。菲 律宾飘忽不定的外交政策明显说明小国政策的左右为难, 同时表明菲律宾国内政策的动荡 本质。 关键词： 菲律宾, 三角关系, 独立外交政策, 中国南海, 罗德里戈 Á 杜特尔特 *Richard Javad Heydarian served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the De La Salle University in Manila, and is the author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China, and the Struggle for Western Pacific. The author acknowledges the important contributions of Dr. Amado Mendoza, Jr., Full Professor of Political Science at the University of the Philippines Diliman, to an earlier draft of the article. DOI: 10.1111/aspp.12355 Asian Politics & Policy—Volume 9, Number 4—Pages 564–582 V C 2017 Policy Studies Organization. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.