i
Vol. 13(2), pp. 100-105, April-June 2021
DOI: 10.5897/JEIF2021.1127
Article Number: 9D4039867119
ISSN 2006-9812
Copyright©2021
Author(s) retain the copyright of this article
http://www.academicjournals.org/JEIF
Journal of Economics and International
Finance
Full Length Research Paper
The effects of interest rate on economic growth:
Further insights from the Gambia
Matarr Njie* and Momodou Badjie
Department of Economics and Finance, School of Business and Public Administration, University of the Gambia,
Gambia.
Received 26 April, 2021; Accepted 8 June, 2021
The main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of interest rate on economic growth in
Gambia over the period 1993 to 2017. The Vector E rror Correction Model (VECM) is used to check the
relationships between the dependent variable (Gross Domestic Product) and independent variables
(Real Effective Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate), both in the short-run and long-run. Post
estimation tests, including Lagrange Multiplier test for residual autocorrelation were also conducted for
autocorrelation, as well as Jarque Bera to test for stability and to check whether residuals are normally
distributed. The empirical evidence indicates that there is no short-run association between the growth
of the Gambian economy and interest rate but that there is a long run connection that runs from real
interest rate and real exchange rate to GDP. Based on these findings, the paper recommends for the
government through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs to prudently manage the Gambia’s
budget by avoiding unnecessary expenditures that could lead to budget deficits.These budget deficits
are key drivers that cause interest rates to rise, which in turn are inimical to economic growth.
Key words: Gross domestic product, real interest rate, real exchange rate, Vector Error Correction Model
(VECM).
INTRODUCTION
The debate over the precise effects of interest rate on
economic growth remains an unfinished business.
Existing research shows vast variations in the use of
interest rate as a policy tool for reviving economic growth.
On the one hand, research has shown that decreasing
the interest rate due to expansionary monetary policy
may revive the economy because of increased economic
activities (Jelilov, 2016), thereby creating a positive and
statistically significant impact on economic growth
(Campos, 2012). On the other hand, slow economic
growth which may be due to a tight monetary policy via a
relatively high interest rate regime can lead to a fall in the
economic growth (Foo, 2009), which may be due to the
negative and statistically significant impact of interest rate
(Udoka, 2012). Yet, others, including Hansen and
Seshadri (2014) found no significant relationship between
interest rate and economic growth.
For the strand of the literature that adheres to the view
that reducing interest rate may help increase aggregate
demand, critics contend that such a policy move is of
*Corresponding author. E-mail: manjie@utg.edu.gm, njagga25@yahoo.com.
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License 4.0 International License