THE ROLE OF CLIMATE AND HUMAN INFLUENCES IN THE DRY-UP OF THE JINCI SPRINGS, CHINA 1 Yonghong Hao, Yuen Zhu, Ying Zhao, Wei Wang, Xin Du, and Tian-Chyi J. Yeh 2 ABSTRACT: One of the largest karst springs in North China, the Jinci Springs, dried up and has remained dry since 1994. We develop a correlation analysis with time-lag and a regression analysis with time-lag to study the relation between spring flow and precipitation. This allows us to obtain a better understanding of karst hydro- logical processes by differentiating the contribution of variation in precipitation from anthropogenic impacts on the dry-up of Jinci Springs. We divided the karstic hydrological processes into two phases: pre-1961 and post- 1961. In the first phase (i.e., 1954-1960) the groundwater recharge was affected by precipitation alone, and in the second phase (i.e., 1961-1994) the groundwater recharge was influenced by both precipitation and human activities. Using precipitation and groundwater recharge data in the first phase, we set up a groundwater recharge model with time-lags. By running the time-lags model, we acquired the groundwater recharge likely to occur under the sole effect of precipitation in the second phase. Using a water-balance calculation, we conclude that the groundwater recharge exhibited statistical stationarity, and the Jinci Springs dry-up was the result of anthropogenic activities. At least three specific types of anthropogenic activities contributed to the drying-up of Jinci Springs: (1) groundwater pumping accounts for 51%, (2) the dewatering from coal mining accounts for 33%, (3) and dam-building 14%. The drying-up of Jinci Springs meant that the groundwater drained from the aquifer’s fractures, and subsequently changed the structure of the karst aquifer. Although groundwater exploita- tion has been reduced, the flow at Jinci Springs has not reoccurred. (KEY TERMS: karst hydrology; runoff; climate variability; simulation.) Hao, Yonghong, Yuen Zhu, Ying Zhao, Wei Wang, Xin Du, and Tian-Chyi J. Yeh, 2009. The Role of Climate and Human Influences in the Dry-Up of the Jinci Springs, China. Journal of the American Water Resources Associa- tion (JAWRA) 45(5):1228-1237. DOI: 10.1111 / j.1752-1688.2009.00356.x INTRODUCTION Karst formations often constitute significant aqui- fers. It is estimated that 25% of the global population is supplied largely or entirely by groundwater from karst aquifers (Ford and Williams, 1989; Jaquet et al., 2004). However, karst aquifers are generally considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic impacts (Leibundgut, 1998). Climate change influences hydrological pro- cesses and alters the recharge and discharge of karst 1 Paper No. JAWRA-08-0180-P of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). Received September 25, 2008; accepted June 1, 2009. ª 2009 American Water Resources Association. Discussions are open until six months from print publication. 2 Respectively, Professor, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Environment and Resources, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China; Lecturer, College of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi Province, China and School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Graduate Student, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Graduate Student, Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi Province, China; Graduate Student, Col- lege of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi Province, China; and Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 (E-Mail / Hao: haoyh@sxu.edu.cn). JAWRA 1228 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION Vol. 45, No. 5 AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION October 2009