Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies Vol.6-2 (2006) WHY IS THE NUMBER OF CATHOLIC PRIESTS DIMINISHING IN PORTUGAL? ANALYSIS OF THE PERIOD 1960-2002 MOURAO, Paulo R. * Abstract: This work aims at testing a large range of hypotheses that focus on the evidence of the diminishing number of catholic priests. The data are from the Portuguese reality observed between 1960 and 2002. These hypotheses are related to the recent socio-economic evolution verified in Portugal. As main findings, it is highlighted that the strongest long-term factor is the rate of fertility. Other relevant causes are the “fear of the future” in the youth and the descending number of other religious people. The economic growth (suggested by the real GDP per capita) is not characterized by a significant coefficient. Key Words : Economic Growth; Religion; Cointegration JEL Codes : C22, J13, Z12 1.Introduction Year after year, the Vatican publishes the Statistical Yearbook of the Church, where we can easily confirm that the number of catholic priests has been decreasing for more than twenty years in most industrialized countries. In Portugal, mainly in the last 25 years, the total number of catholic priests has been diminishing too. Why? Some hypotheses of answers that the Economics of Religion has been highlighting to a generalized space point the social transformation, the demographic evolution, the changes in the family structure, the “crisis of vocations” or the economic growth (accused by the secularization theory as the most important determinant). * Paulo R. Mourão, Economics Department;University of Minho; Gualtar; 4700 Braga, Portugal. E- Mail paulom@eeg.uminho.pt Acknowledgement : The author is indebted to the referees of RSES for their pertinent commentaries on a first version of this work. Remaining imperfections are author’s exclusive responsibility.