Sarhad J. Agric. Vol.20, No.3, 2004 TREND AND RATE OF GROWTH IN WHEAT YIELD SINCE 1947 IN PAKISTAN Muhammad Ishaq, Arshad Farooq and Shaukat Hayat Saddozai ABSTRACT This study was conducted during 2003, using the secondary sources with the objective to analyze the trend in wheat yield and to estimate the compound (over a period of time) growth rate. During pre-green revolution period the trend in area and production was positive and statistically significant while in wheat yield the trend was negative (decay) and statistically insignificant, whereas, the compound rate of growth in area and production was 1.51 % and 1.21 %, respectively. During Green Revolution period the trend in area, production and yield was positive and statistically significant. Where, the compound rate of growth in area, production and yield was 0.80 %, 5.23 % and 4.50%, respectively. During Post-green revolution period the trend in area, production and yield was also positive and statistically significant. The compound rate of growth during this period in area was 1.11%, production grew at the rate of 3.25 % and yield growth was 2.13 %. Though the researchers are striving to achieve the potential level, but the pace of growth is slow as compared to that of green revolution period. This situation needs proper attention of the policy makers and all those involved in the development of agriculture, to take concrete steps to meet the challenges of food security and upcoming regime of WTO. INTRODUCTION Agriculture sector being the lynchpin of Pakistan’s economy, it accounts for 24% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 48.4% of the total work force. Beside this, almost 67.5% of country’s population living in rural areas is directly or indirectly linked with agriculture for their livelihood (GoP, 2003). Any improvement in agriculture will not only help country’s economic growth to rise at a faster rate but will also benefit a large segment of the country’s population. Like in South Asia, poverty in Pakistan is largely a rural phenomena and agriculture will have to play a critical role in the fight against poverty in the country. Wheat is the main staple food of the country’s population and the leading food grain of Pakistan occupying the largest area (8.5 million hectares) under any single crop (PARC, 2002). It contributes 12.5% to the value added in agriculture and 3.1% to GDP (GoP, 2003) and therefore occupies a central position in agricultural policies. This study was conducted with the major objective to find out the performance of wheat crop during pre-green revolution, Green revolution and post green revolution periods. It is anticipated that the findings of the study might be of great importance to researchers, policy makers, public and private sectors and those involved in agriculture development for future planning. The specific objectives of the study are, as follow: i. To analyze the trend in wheat yield since 1947; ii. to estimate the compound (over a period of time) growth rate during pre Green Revolution (1947- 65), Green Revolution (1966-76) and post Green Revolution (1976-99) periods; iii. to compare the differences in wheat yield among the pre Green Revolution period (1947-65), during Green Revolution period (1966-76) and post Green Revolution period (1976-99). MATERIALS AND METHODS The study, conducted during 2003, was based on time series data, using Statistical Bulletin on Wheat in Pakistan (1983) and Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan (2000). Wheat production in Pakistan is divided into three distinct periods: 1947-65, prior to the release of semi-dwarf wheat; 1966-76, the so- called “Green Revolution” period when High Yielding Varieties (HYVs) were rapidly adopted on about two thirds of total wheat area; and 1976 to date, post green revolution period when HYVs continued to spread to cover the major wheat area (PARC, 2002). The long-term trend in yield and area under wheat was estimated by applying linear semi-log trend function (Rahman, 1999 and Aquino et al. 2002). Technology Transfer Institute, PARC, Tarnab, Peshawar – Pakistan.