  Citation: Jin, L.; Wojtanowicz, A.K.; Ge, J. Prediction of Pressure Increase during Waste Water Injection to Prevent Seismic Events. Energies 2022, 15, 2101. https://doi.org/10.3390/ en15062101 Academic Editors: Nediljka Gaurina-Me ¯ dimurec and Borivoje Paši´ c Received: 31 December 2021 Accepted: 11 March 2022 Published: 13 March 2022 Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affil- iations. Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). energies Article Prediction of Pressure Increase during Waste Water Injection to Prevent Seismic Events Lu Jin 1, *, Andrew K. Wojtanowicz 1 and Jun Ge 2 1 Craft & Hawkins Department of Petroleum Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA; awojtan@lsu.edu 2 Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA; jun.ge@beg.utexas.edu * Correspondence: lujin329@yahoo.com Abstract: A considerable increase of seismicity has occurred in the USA in the last decade (2009–2020) with an annual average of 345 M3+ earthquakes. Numerous field cases have shown that excessive well pressure due to a high injection rate may have triggered seismic events. This study defines conditions for inducing a seismic event by excessive injection in the well’s pressure that may cause geomechanical damage to the rock. Introduced here is an analytical model and method for predicting pressure increase during injection of produced water contaminated with oil. The model calculates time-dependent advancement of the captured oil saturation causing the well’s injectivity damage and pressure increase. Critical conditions for a seismic event are set by defining rock failure when well pressure exceeds the fracturing pressure of the wellbore or when the increased pore pressure reduces the effective normal stress at the “weak” interface inside the rock, computed with a geomechanical model. This concept is demonstrated in three field case studies using data from geological formations in areas of petroleum operations. The results confirm field observations of the initial rapid increase of oil invasion and injection pressure that could only be controlled by reducing the rate of injection to assure continuing long-time operation. Keywords: injection wells; induced seismicity; produced water injection; injection pressure model; rock slippage diagram 1. Introduction In the United States, the estimated volume of water produced in oilfields is in the range of 20 to 30 billion barrels (3.2–4.8 billion m 3 ) per year [1,2]. The volume has increased over the last decade due to maturing of conventional oil/gas fields and the development of unconventional shale deposits [35]. In 2020, approximately 65% of the total oil production in the US was from unconventional reservoirs as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (US EIA). Table 1 shows the effect of the “shale revolution” on US water production [2]. Table 1. Comparison of oil, gas, and water production in the US before (2007) and after (2017) the “shale revolution” [2]. Time Category Oil, Million bbl/yr (Million m 3 /yr) Gas, Million cf/yr (Million m 3 /yr) Water, Million bbl/yr (Million m 3 /yr) 2007 1750 (278) 24,374,000 (69,016) 20,195 (3211) 2012 2264 (360) 29,730,220 (841,868) 21,181 (3368) 2017 3405 (541) 35,005,078 (991,235) 24,395 (3878) Energies 2022, 15, 2101. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15062101 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies