Journal of Money, Investment and Banking
ISSN 1450-288X Issue 3 (2008)
© EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2008
http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm
General Election, Political Change and
Market Efficiency: Long- and Short-Term
Perspective in Developed Stock Market
Yi-Hsien Wang
Department of Finance, Yuanpei University, No. 306
Yuanpei St. Hsin Chu 30015, Taiwan
E-mail: holland@mail2000.com.tw
Mei-Yu Lee
Department of Finance, Yuanpei University, No. 306
Yuanpei St. Hsin Chu 30015, Taiwan, ROC
Che-Yang Lin
Department of Finance, Yuanpei University, No. 306
Yuanpei St. Hsin Chu 30015, Taiwan
Abstract
This paper utilized event study and panel data to examine the effects of general
election and political change in developed stock market. The analytical results demonstrate
that there is inverse information during the campaign. Furthermore, the results provide
evidences that political change was originally intended as an incumbent party impetus to
create opportunities for progress. This has caused great political party distress, creating
political change with an inverse stock market relationship in developed countries.
Keywords: Event Study, Panel Data, GARCH, General Election, Market Efficiency
JEL Classification Codes: C23, G14
1. Introduction
Recent globalization with rapid global economy integration has caused individual stock market growth
and compaction. The stock market is a national economy barometer in that it speculates on the future
of the economy. Thus political information easily spreads into the stock market with consequent mass
media development. It generally responds to new political information that may affect the national
economy future. Hence, whether or not political change influences the stock market continues to be an
important analysis for scholars and market participators (Chan and Wei, 1996; Bittlingmayer, 1998;
Kim and Mei, 2001; Perotti and Oijen, 2001; Hassan et al., 2003).
Exploring complicated relationship between stock market and political behavior using
statistical methods is one of most exciting issues for academicians and investors. Politics and that
economy are inextricably linked; that is, they have significant influence on each other, and cannot be
separated (Chandiok, 1996; Bratsiotis, 2000; Cover, 2000; Easaw and Garratt, 2000; Harms, 2002;
Chiu et al., 2005).