Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics Vol. 7, October 2020 ISSN: 2407-439X 18 Estimated Profits of Rengginang Lorjuk Madura by used Comparison of Holt-Winter and Moving Average Erwin Prasetyowati Departemen of Industrial Engineering Universitas Madura Pamekasan, Jawa Timur, Indonesia email: erwinprasetyowati@unira.ac.id ORCID ID: 0000-0003-4433-3168 Imron Rosyadi NR Departemen of Industrial Engineering Universitas Madura Pamekasan, Jawa Timur, Indonesia ORCID ID: 0000-0003-3586-5146 Matsaini Departemen of Industrial Engineering Universitas Madura Pamekasan, Jawa Timur, Indonesia ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8885-477X Abstract—Rengginang Lorjuk is a typical Madura food that is ordered more by SMEs and is found in Sumenep Regency and several other areas in Madura. This product is made for supplies and orders, where demand will surge at certain times. Therefore, SMEs of Rengginang Lorjuk is required to have good planning in determining the selling price in accordance with the revenue target obtained. Considering that the main raw materials used are sticky rice and ensis leei (lorjuk) are raw materials that have fluctuating prices, this studio compares forecasting methods namely Holt Winter (HW) and Moving Average (MA), supported by MSE and MAPE, in order to obtain accurate forecasting results. These forecasting results show that HW has better accuracy than the MA, which is then used to calculate the cost of production with an Activity-Based Costing system, which requires charging costs for all activities carried out in production, namely the cost of raw materials, direct labor costs, and overhead factory fee. Using MAPE values, this study yields 4 estimates of production costs in accordance with changes in raw material costs. Keywords—component, formatting, style, styling, insert I. INTRODUCTION The increase in the number of business actors is not matched by an increase in knowledge about good entrepreneurship. Business actors in regions, especially SMEs, generally only focus on the stages of the production process that must be carried out and the marketing techniques that will be used. On the other hand, SMEs should conduct evaluations in various aspects, carry out proper planning and create a competitive advantage to remain sustainable in the business world. Planning in the field of management will create a business in an area such as Rengginang Lorjuk which is typical of Madura, has a competitive advantage, both in terms of selling prices, product quality, and market segmentation. The high level of competition of Rengginang products from various regions in Indonesia, resulting in changes in product selling prices will have a significant impact on total sales. Therefore, the product selling price is the most important factor and must continue to be considered. However, the problem that often occurs due to high levels of competition is that business actors tend to choose to set the same selling price as their competitors. While all activities that should incur costs are not considered [1]. The selling price of the product itself should not be too low to cover all costs incurred during the production process and be able to provide the desired benefits, but also not too high so that consumers do not turn to competitors. In this case, the mark up of the production costs can be used to determine the selling price [2], so that an accurate calculation of the production costs is also needed. Production costs are closely related to the inventory system, while the selling price is set, will affect the demand [3]. Demand tends to increase when the selling price is set low, and vice versa high selling prices will reduce demand [4]. Therefore the calculation of production costs is important, where costs are the main driving component of competitive decision making [5]. One of the measurement tools for production costs that have high accuracy is Activity-Based Costing (ABC), where the cost planning system is developed to anticipate the weaknesses contained in conventional cost accounting systems. The main concern of ABC is company activities, which incur costs. Thus the ABC system makes it easy to calculate the cost of production thereby increasing the effectiveness of management decisions [6], [7]. Therefore, accurate information on cost based on production processes and activities through the ABC system will provide many benefits [8], [9]. To improve the accuracy of the calculation of production costs, this study adds the element of forecasting the price of raw material Rengginang products as a form of anticipation of the determination of the selling price, especially Rengginang which is produced by order. This anticipation is needed so that SMEs of Rengginang Lorjuk Madura can evaluate the selling price that is set so that the benefits obtained are more optimal. The price of raw materials that will be predicted is white sticky rice and ensis leei (lorjuk) which have a fluctuating and seasonal trend of price changes. Forecasting is an important tool in planning an effective and efficient future, using and considering data from the past. Several forecasting methods have been developed in many previous studies. One accurate forecasting tool for trend and seasonal patterned time series data is Exponential Smoothing (ES) [10]. ES is a forecasting method used to predict the future by conducting a smoothing process by producing forecast data that is smaller in error value. In ES there are one or more