新冠肺炎疫情影响下区域产业网络 风险传导效应研究 张 欣 1* ，郁佳亮 1 ，IRENA Vodenska 2 (1. 上海海事大学交通运输学院 上海 浦东新区 201306；2. 国波士顿大学大都会学院 国 波士顿 02215) 【摘要】新冠肺情的突发和快速蔓，使我国区域产经济面临峻挑战。情导致部份产供给中断和求下 滑，并通过产链扩散蔓至整个网络，极发系统性风险。为模拟情响下区域产供链的风险传导效，该文通 过构建我国区域产网络，入网络级联失效模型，模拟湖北产供给中断、求下滑及不同产产能受限和求下降的 情况下，停产和流动性风险的传导效。结果显示，风险的扩散呈现突变态势，存在临界时间点。临界点前风险扩散较为缓 慢平稳，旦突破临界点，则加速蔓使整个产网络在短时期内陷入瘫痪。不同产在供给侧和求端的冲击响下，对 系统性风险水平的响具有质性。 关 键 词 新冠情； 复杂经济网络； 网络级联失效； 风险传导 中图分类号 TP391; N949 文献标志码 A doi:10.12178/1001-0548.2020092 Modeling the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Regional Industry Risk Contagion ZHANG Xin 1* , YU Jia-liang 1 , and IRENA Vodenska 2 (1. College of Communication and Transport, Shanghai Maritime University Pudong Shanghai 201306; 2. Metropolitan College, Boston University Boston USA 02215) Abstract The outbreak and rapid spread of Covid-19 epidemic have brought severe challenges to the regional economy of China. The epidemic has led to interruptions in supply and decline in demand in some industries, causing supply chain risk spread through the industry chain to the entire network, which is very likely to trigger systemic risks. In order to simulate the risk contagion effect of the regional industrial supply chain under the influence of the epidemic, a network cascading failure model based on China's regional industrial network is proposed. We simulate the propagation of production suspension and liquidity risk in the case of unexpected interruption of supply and decline in demand in Hubei province as well as the rest part of China. The results show that risk propagation exhibits an abrupt transition with a critical time point. The risk spread is relatively slow and stable before the critical point. Once the critical point is exceeded, the accelerated spread makes the entire industrial network blackout in a short period. We also show that under the impact of supply-side and demand-side shocks, different industries have heterogeneous effects on systemic risk levels. re industrial network blackout in a short period. We also show that different industries have heterogeneous impact on systemic risk of the industry network under shocks from supply and demand side. Key words COVID-19; complex economic network; network cascade failure; risk contagion 新冠肺炎疫情已成为新中国成立以来发生的传 播速度最快、感染围最广、防控难度最大的一次 重大突发公共卫生事件。截至 2020 年 3 月 14 日， 新冠肺炎疫情已波及全国 31 个省自区、直辖市 以及 126 个国家，确诊人数累计达 144 833 人，死 亡人数达 5 424 人 [1] 。 新冠肺炎疫情对经济的冲可归为供和需 两个方面 [2] ：1) 供主要受不足和生产原料 短两个因素的影响。为防控疫情，2020 年 1 月 23 日湖北采取“封城”措施，同时其他省市也实施 了一定程度上的封闭管理和隔离措施。由此造成企 业复工复产迟，有效不足。同时由于生产 原料不足和交通运输受限，上游产业的产能受限， 传导至下游产业，进一步生产原料的短；2) 收稿日期：2020 − 02 − 02；修回日期：2020 − 04 − 02 基项目：国家自然科学基 (71601112) 作者简介：张欣 (1982 − )，女，教授，主要从事复杂建模、经济析、风险方面的研究. E-mail：zhangxin@shmtu.edu.cn 第 49 卷 第 3 期 电子科技大学学报 Vol.49 No.3 2020 年 5 月 Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China May 2020