Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic Beate Jahn 1,† · Sarah Friedrich 2,† · Joachim Behnke 3 · Joachim Engel 4 · Ursula Garczarek 5 · Ralf M ¨ unnich 6 · Markus Pauly 7 · Adalbert Wilhelm 8 · Olaf Wolkenhauer 9 · Markus Zwick 10 · Uwe Siebert 1,11,12 · Tim Friede 2⋆ Received: date / Accepted: date Abstract A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making with regard to the types of decisions and geographic levels ranging from regional and national to international. As decisions should be underpinned by evidence, several steps are necessary: First, data collection in terms of time dimension as well as representa- tivity with respect to all necessary geographical levels is of particular importance. Aspects such as data quality, data availability and data relevance must be considered. These data can be used to develop statistical, mathematical and decision-analytical models enabling prediction and simulation of the consequences of interventions. We especially discuss the role of data in the different models. With respect to reporting, transparent communication to different stakeholders is crucial. This includes method- ological aspects (e.g. the choice of model type and input parameters), the availability, quality and role of the data, the definition of relevant outcomes and tradeoffs and deal- ing with uncertainty. In order to understand the results, statistical literacy should be ⋆ Corresponding author: E-mail: tim.friede@med.uni-goettingen.de † Shared first authorship 1 Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT – University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Austria · 2 Department of Medical Statistics, University Medical Center G¨ ottingen, Germany · 3 Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen, Germany · 4 P¨ adagogische Hochschule Ludwigsburg, Germany · 5 Cytel Inc, 675, Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA · 6 Economic and Social Statistics, Trier University, Germany · 7 Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Germany · 8 Psychology and Methods, Jacobs University Bremen, Germany · 9 Department of Systems Biology & Bioinformatics, University of Rostock and Leibniz-Institute for Food Systems Biology, Technical University of Munich, Germany · 10 Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany · 11 Institute for Technology Assessment and Department of Radiology; Massachusetts General Hospital; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA · 12 Center for Health Decision Science and Departments of Epidemiology and Health Policy & Manage- ment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA arXiv:2108.04068v1 [stat.OT] 6 Aug 2021