RESEARCH ARTICLE
MODELING THE DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN SUDAN USING GENERALIZED
METHOD OF MOMENTS FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2017
1*
Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa and
2*
Faroug Mohammed Khalid Yousif
1
Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa , Associate Professor of Econometrics, Department of Econometrics and Social
Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Bakht Al -Ruda, Sudan
2
Faroug Mohammed Khalid Yousif, Assistant Professor of Econometrics, Wadmdni, Aljazira, Sudan
ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT
This paper aims to modeling the determinants of inflation in Sudan via GMM method for the period
2000-2017to help in formulating an effective decreasing inflation rate policy. The paper focused on
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure(GE), Exchange Rate (EX), Consumer
Price Index (CPI), Unemployment Rate (UR),and Money Supply (MS)as they are the most important
determinants of inflation in Sudan. The paper is based on the following assumptions: the Gross
Domestic Product, Unemployment Rate and Government Expenditure well effect negatively on
inflation rate, and also there is effect positively between the Inflation Rate and Exchange Rate,
Money Supply, and Consumer Price Index. The paper has reached the following conclusions: that the
increase in money supply and Consumer Price Index lead to an increasing inflation rate. The
reduction of the exchange rate leads to a high rate of inflation. However the increasing in Gross
Domestic Product, Unemployment Rate, and Government Expenditure lead to decreasing inflation
rate in Sudan. The Generalized Method of Moment is the best Method for estimating the determinants
of inflation in Sudan. The paper recommended that the state should adopt effective financial and
monetary policy for reducing the increasing in inflation rate and increased production for exporting.
Copyright © 2018, Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa and Faroug Mohammed Khalid Yousif. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
INTRODUCTION
Inflation can be defined as sustained increase in the aggregate
or general price level in an economy which mean that there is
an increase in the cost of living. Inflation is also known as the
percentage change in the value of the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) on a year-on year basis. It can be said that inflation is a
continuous issue in all nation in maintaining low living cost,
high growth, health economy and as aimed to policy makers’
decision. Inflation provides positive and negative impact
depending on a country economic condition (Audrey et al.,
2007). On the other hand, a moderate level of inflation
characterizes a good economy. The rate of 2 or 3% of inflation
is beneficial for an economy as it encourages people to buy or
borrow more, because during times of lower inflation, the level
of interest rate also remains low. However, inflation has its
worst impact towards consumers. High prices from day today
goods make it difficult for consumers to afford even for the
basic commodities in daily life which will disrupts the smooth
functioning of a market economy (Kurgan, 1995). The higher
income will lead to higher inflation.
*Corresponding author: Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa,
Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa, Associate Professor of Econometrics,
Department of Econometrics and Social Statistics, Faculty of
Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Bakht Al -
Ruda, Sudan.
Hence, the government tries to keep inflation under control and
moving forward to achieve low or zero inflation. Based on
previous researchers, there are quite a number of arguments on
the precise relationship between inflation and economic
indicators at the macroeconomic level (Philip Chimobi, 2010)
Money supply is one of the determinants that affect inflation in
Malaysia (Cheng and Tan, 2015; Wimal Rankaduwa, 2005)
agreed that, there is a positive relationship between money
supply and inflation. Besides, another economic indicator
closely related to both money supply and inflation is the
national income or the Gross Domestic Product (Maymunah et
al., 2005) Various studies done on determinants of inflation,
focusing on independent variables such as unemployment rate,
exchange rate, oil prices (Chong and Tan, 2012) and income
(Nadeem et al., 1992) However, less studies done on
relationship between Gross Domestic Product, Money Supply,
Interest Rate, Import Goods and Services, and Government
Expenditure with inflation. Therefore, this study will
concentrate on the Sudanese economy concept on which
Determinants will effect to increase inflation. The variables
selected are Gross Domestic Product, Money Supply,
unemployment rate, and exchange rate.
International Journal of Information Research and Review
Vol. 05, Issue, 02, pp.5154-5165, February, 2018
Article History:
Received 15
th
November, 2017
Received in revised form
19
th
December, 2017
Accepted 26
th
January, 2018
Published online 28
th
February, 2018
International Journal of Information Research and Review, February, 2018
Keywords:
Determinants,
Inflation Rate,
GMM, Money Supply,
Government Expenditure.