Research in International Business and Finance 25 (2011) 329–334
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Research in International Business
and Finance
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf
The dynamic interaction between volatility and returns in
the US stock market using leveraged bootstrap simulations
Abdulnasser Hatemi-J
*
, Manuchehr Irandoust
Department of Economics and Finance, UAE University, P.O. Box 17555, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 28 November 2010
Received in revised form 3 March 2011
Accepted 15 March 2011
Available online 25 March 2011
JEL classification:
G10
C30
Keywords:
Volatility
Returns
Causality
Leveraged bootstrapping
a b s t r a c t
One of the most important stylized facts in finance is that stock
index returns are inversely related to volatility. The theoretical
rationale behind the proposition is still controversial. The causal
relationship between returns and volatility is investigated in the
US stock market over the period 2004–2009 using daily data. We
apply a bootstrap test with leveraged adjustments that is robust to
non-normality and ARCH. We find that the volatility causes returns
negatively and returns cause volatility positively. The policy impli-
cations of our findings are discussed in the main text.
© 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The underlying link between the return on a financial asset and its variance or volatility as a proxy
for risk is of fundamental importance for valuing financial assets, for identifying optimal hedging
strategies and for evaluating regulatory proposals on monitoring the impact of international capital
flows. Therefore, the theoretical asset pricing models (e.g., Sharpe, 1964; Merton, 1973) are based
on the interaction between returns and risk. However, it is still controversial whether such a rela-
tionship is positive or negative, i.e., a fully acceptable economic clarification for the effect has not
yet been offered (Bouchaud et al., 2001; Bollerslev and Zhou, 2006). Although most asset pricing
models highlight a positive link between stock portfolio’s expected returns and volatility (Baillie and
*
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: AHatemi@uaeu.ac.ae (A. Hatemi-J), MEirandoust@uaeu.ac.ae (M. Irandoust).
0275-5319/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2011.03.001