Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2 (1989) 99-118 99 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V./Pergamon Press plc -- Printed in The Netherlands A Method of Planning Resource Recovery in a Developing Country to Deal with Uncertainty COMFORT ADEBISI OW0LABI* American University, Washington, D.C. 20016 (U.S.A.) HARVEY ALTER** U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20062 (U.S.A.) (Revised manuscript accepted June 26, 1988) ABSTRACT A method of planning resource recovery from municipal solid wastes to manage uncertainty in required data, markets, or other variables, is presented for the case of a city in a developing coun- try. The result of the exercise can be used to decide if further (and perhaps substantial) investment in the planning process is justified. The method deals with uncertain data by using published information, analyses and some rationalization to manage unknowns such as the composition of the waste, plant design, yield of recovered products, operating costs, and product revenues. The objective is to compute what is termed the Affordable Capital Cost (ACC) for the particular local conditions which is then compared to what a community might be able to invest. The computation of ACC is based on a break even analysis (costs equal revenues) for a com- munity economically indifferent as to whether the current method of disposal or recovery is prac- ticed; i.e., the future disposal cost (tip fee) for recovery is first assumed to be the same as that currently paid. The planning method is illustrated for the case of Lagos, Nigeria, where only limited (and sometimes suspect) data are available on the quantity and composition of the mu- nicipal solid waste. Baseline conditions are established to permit computation of ACC. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine options which are discussed as a prelude to further decision making. INTRODUCTION This paper addresses the planning of resource recovery from municipal solid waste (MSW) in a developing country using as an example the situation in Lagos, Nigeria. The overall approach is to establish, from limited available *This paper is based on a thesis submitted in partial fulfillmentof the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, American University, Washington, D.C. Present address: 64 Modupe John- son Crescent, Suru-Lers, Lagos, Nigeria. **Adjunct Professor, College of Public Affairs, American University, Washington, D.C., to whom correspondence should be sent to the address at the top of the page. 0921-3449/89/$03.50 © 1989 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V./Pergamon Press plc