TECHNOLOGK’AL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE t&219-221 (1974) 219 zyxwvutsrqponm Research Pro blew On the Creation of Demand for Technological Innovation ROBERT DOKTOR This short paper addresses itself to one point: Is it possible to artifically create societal demand for technological innovation through governmental policies which en- courage the dissemination of science fiction literature? Technological forecasters havt*, for years. used science fiction literature as an indexing tool. It is proposed that technological innovation can be spurred by a demand-pull dynamic as well as a cost-push phenomena, and that the existence of large amounts of science fiction literature can awaken in individuals in the society a desire to see things, like the things in science fiction, come into being in their own lives. This notion is not new. David McClelland has demonstrated that there exist, a strong relation between “achievement imagery” in childrens’ readers and later industrial growth. In a study of industrial growth in England over approximately a 200 year period McClelland [ I ] finds a strong relation between “achievement imagery” in children’s readers at time ti and industrial growth at time ti+G where G is approximately the time necessary to move from grade school to a position of influence in an industrial corpora- Lion. The inference is, of zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA course, that the possibility of a causal chain exists as given below: ICI =f (AIt+ 3 Xi, - . . X,/s (I) where IGt = industrial growth at time t; Al = achievement imagery in children’s readers at time f-G; G = time necessary to move from grade school to position of influence in industrial corporation or concern; Xi = other variables. The same type of imputed causality given above is offered for thought in this article. Specifically, it is hypothesized that : (2) where TI, = technological innovation at time t; SFL = science fiction literature at time t- I ; 1 = an unspecified lag time period; XI = other variables. Nate that this is only a notion. Unlike the McClelland study, Eq. (2) is not justified by empirical data. The purpose of this article is only to raise the questions: Is a relationship as indicated in Eq. (2) reasonable? If so, how might it be studied? The author does not have the answers to these questions-it is his hope that others more informed in the area of technological forecasting and social change may have these answers. Because zyxwvutsrqponm PRO F. DOKTOR is with the School of Management, State Udversity of New York at Binghamton, Bingbmtc?n, hew York 13901. @American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc., 1974