IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology (IOSR-JESTFT) e-ISSN: 2319-2402,p- ISSN: 2319-2399.Volume 14, Issue 8 Ser. III (August 2020), PP 08-15 www.iosrjournals.org DOI: 10.9790/2402-1408030815 www.iosrjournals.org 8 | Page Extrapolation of Land Use Land Cover Changes in Menisa Watershed Using GIS based Markov Chain Analysis Merkineh Thomas 1 , Barana Babiso 2 1 (Natural Resource Management department, College of Agriculture, WolaitaSodo University, Ethiopia 2 (Geography and Environmental Studies department, College Social Sciences, WolaitaSodo University, Ethiopia Abstract: Background: Land Use/ Land Cover (LU/LC) Change is one of the major human induced global changes. Information on LULC Change and the forces and processes behind such changes are essential for proper understanding of how land was being used in the past, what type of changes have occurred and are expected in the future. This study was carried out to examine expected land use/land cover changes in the Menisa watershed in Offa Woreda, Southern Ethiopia. Materials and MethodsIt was conducted using satellite image of Landsat5 TM 1989 and 1999, Landsat7 ETM+ 2019 to investigate LULC within the study area during 1984-2014 and the resulted LULC maps in 1999 and 2014 were used to predict future LULC map based on Markov Model. ERDAS Imagine 2014 and ArcGIS 10.3 software’s were used for satellite image processing and map preparation respectively. Results: The study revealed agricultural land decreased with a mean annual rate of 76.91ha/year, followed by 15.2 ha/year drop in forest lands. During the 30 year period, degraded land was continually increasing as it was 680ha in 1989 and 3346ha in 2019, about 2666ha brought under degraded land. In addition, built up and shrub land were continuously increasing as it was 972.7 ha (113.17%) and 607.2ha (44.81%) change respectively in the period under study. Built up and degraded LU/LC categories are expected to gain 54% and 74% from other LU/LC categories in 2049. This implies that shrub land and forest will have a net loss of 34% and 2% respectively. Conclusion:Thus, the findings revealed to witness expansion of urban and degraded land in 2049; hence, the right policy packages are required to control the expansion of built up and degradation at the expense of other resources in the study area. Key Word: LULC Change, Markov Chain Analysis, GIS & RS, Gesuba, Menisa Watershed --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date of Submission: 07-08-2020 Date of Acceptance: 21-08-2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I. Introduction Land is a vital resource and is the basis of the existence of mankind. It is a base on which all life depends. It provides ecosystem services such as conserving biodiversity, storing carbon, purifying and storing water and regulating the Earth’s climate by absorbing the heat as well [1] [2]. These services will continue if only the land is not destroyed or degraded by human induced actions. According to [3] increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations; alterations in the biochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and on-going Land Use Land Cover (hereafter LULC) change are the three major human induced global changes. LULC change is an endless process taking place on the earth’s surface starting from ancient time [4] [5]. Several natural and human factors cause LULC changes within the confines of social, economic and political circumstances [6] [7]. Human activities are responsible for the conversion and transformation of plentiful of the world’s natural land covers [8]. For instance, over the last 10,000 years, about 50% of the ice- free land surface has been changed by human activities [9]. Accordingly, since 1850 around 6 million km² and 4.7 million km² of forest/woodland and grassland areas have been converted to agricultural land worldwide in that order, to meet the demand for food and fiber. These drivers are a complex mixture of political, social, economic and biophysical factors that add force to environmental changes [10] and intensified through high population growth rates [11]. Furthermore, the conversion and modification of the LULC that are induced largely by human activities and natural processes create problems that influence the environment [12]. Like many other developing countries, Ethiopia is experiencing enormous LULC changes[13][1]. The LULC change problem is more severe in the highland parts of Ethiopia. It is because these areas were characterized by high population pressure and cultivated for long period of time [14]. Different studies have been conducted to quantify LU/LCC in both highland and lowland parts of Ethiopia [15] [16] [17] [18] [6]. Accordingly, the country is characterized by reduction of forest, woodlands, grass and shrub lands, but a remarkable expansion of agricultural land, settlements and bare lands in space and time. The mounting pressure